Can the Panthers defense disrupt Mac Jones? Scouting key matchups against the Patriots

There is uncertainty surrounding the Panthers offense heading into Week 9. New England could be preparing for Sam Darnold and Christian McCaffrey, Darnold without McCaffrey, or backups P.J. Walker and Chuba Hubbard.

Darnold was limited in practice all week and remains in concussion protocol. Coach Matt Rhule said McCaffrey was also limited though the team does not have to disclose his practice status until he’s activated.

It’s a toss-up which quarterback gives Carolina a better winning opportunity. Darnold is 0-3 against Bill Belichick. Remember, the Patriots made him “see ghosts,” and the numbers support those infamous 2019 comments.

In those three games, Darnold has thrown one touchdown, six interceptions and completed only 53.9% of his passes; he went 11-for-32 (35%) in the ghost game. Belichick probably wants to face Darnold, though there is no chance Walker worries him, either.

This is why Carolina must find ways to attack New England without relying on whoever starts at quarterback. The best way to achieve that is by making it a physical game up front. But the Patriots (4-4) are playing powerful football, too. Can the Panthers win their matchups up front? Let’s explore that and other key matchups:

The Panthers pass rush vs. Mac Jones

Carolina presents a problem New England hasn’t faced yet. Edge rushers Brian Burns and Haason Reddick are versatile front defenders capable of defending the run or swarming Mac Jones within the pocket.

Defensive coordinator Phil Snow uses multiple fronts to confuse quarterbacks and keep centers from decoding where his pressures are coming from. There are times when Reddick or Burns will drop into coverage, allowing interior defensive linemen Derrick Brown and DaQuan Jones to work inside with various stunts and loops.

Carolina’s athletic pass rush caused Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan to throw for the fewest net yards of his career last Sunday.

Expect New England to have a more disciplined game plan than Atlanta. Rhule said he stressed the importance of stopping the run as New England leans into heavier 21 personnel packages. Running back Damien Harris averages 4.4 yards per carry and has scored six touchdowns.

Neutralizing Harris forces Jones to make more plays. The Panthers second-ranked defense can exploit New England’s rookie on longer third downs because Carolina has an advantage upfront. Unleashing its pass rush by controlling the line of scrimmage on early downs is a winning formula.

Can the Panthers offense find mismatches against New England?

Carolina’s passing game remains out of sorts. It’s obvious why the Panthers view themselves as a defensive football team that must control the ball to win. But Carolina was 20% better on third down last week. That means the passing game improved some.

Can offensive coordinator Joe Brady build upon it? They’ll have to against New England. Belichick is known for taking away what offenses do best. If Carolina struggles running it then expect lots of third-and-7s or more. That’s not how the Panthers want to play, but it doesn’t mean they cannot convert.

McCaffrey playing or not will determine if the Panthers passing attack can threaten New England. Expect New England to double DJ Moore and put their best corner on Robby Anderson if McCaffrey is out. But if he plays, then his presence on third down changes everything.

With McCaffrey on the field, Belichick would have to reconsider how he defends running backs. Usually he uses a Cover 1 base call, allowing his cornerbacks to play man coverage. Then either safety Kyle Dugger or Adrian Phillips rolls into the box to defend the running back.

McCaffrey presents a matchup issue for Dugger or Phillips. Belichick’s counter could be taking his No. 3 defensive back (usually a nickel corner) and sliding him toward McCaffrey. This would give Carolina’s slot receiver (probably Terrace Marshall) or Anderson a more favorable matchup.

If McCaffrey doesn’t play then New England has a major advantage in the passing game.

Special teams matter most

Carolina kicker Zane Gonzalez nearly outscored Atlanta on his own. The NFC Special Teams Player of the Week hit four field goals, including a career long 57-yard bomb. Without Gonzalez, Atlanta wins. In fact, the Falcons missed a field goal that helped Carolina push its lead to two scores late in the fourth quarter.

New England often comes correct on special teams. Belichick emphasizes all three phases (offense, defense and special teams) evenly. The Patriots rank first in field-goal percentage and second in punt average. That means they make their kicks and consistently have better field position than their opponents.

In a game where both teams plan on controlling the ball and executing defensively, special teams can provide a game-deciding edge. Advantage, New England.

This story was originally published November 6, 2021 at 7:00 AM with the headline "Can the Panthers defense disrupt Mac Jones? Scouting key matchups against the Patriots."

Ellis L. Williams

The Charlotte Observer

Hailing from Minnesota, Ellis L. Williams joined the Observer in October 2021 to cover the Carolina Panthers. Prior, he spent two years reporting on the Browns for Cleveland.com/the Plain Dealer. Having escaped cold winters, he’s thrilled to consume football, hoops, music and movies within the Queen City.