Cabarrus County is moving left. Is 2026 the year Democrats break the GOP’s hold?
For years, Cabarrus County elections were predictable. Now, party leaders and political scientists are watching them more closely.
Experts say Cabarrus shifted left in recent election cycles, presidential margins tightened, rapid population growth changed the electorate and testing long-held assumptions about the county’s politics. Together, those trends raised a question heading into 2026 about whether Cabarrus is still the solidly Republican county it’s long been or if Democrats have a shot at winning seats.
That question surfaced in December when state Sen. Amy Galey urged Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page not to run against Senate leader Phil Berger, warning that expensive primaries could weaken Republicans in tighter general election races, WRAL reported. Galey named state Sen. Chris Measmer’s seat, which includes most of Cabarrus County, as one of those potentially competitive districts. Measmer will face what’s expected to be a strong primary fight against former Rep. Kevin Crutchfield as well as general election competition.
Western Carolina University politics professor Chris Cooper said Cabarrus stands out statewide because of how quickly its electorate is changing.
“Cabarrus County has been one of the biggest movers to the left, so towards the Democratic Party, of any county in North Carolina,” Cooper said. “With that said, it hasn’t been enough to change the election outcome.”
Experts say Cabarrus is moving from “very Republican” toward competitive
Cooper described the trend as “pinkening,” meaning the county is becoming more competitive without having flipped. He said Republicans continue to win most races there, but vote margins have narrowed as the population has grown.
The change is evident in smaller margins for President Donald Trump in 2024, and Gov. Josh Stein winning the county the same year, Cooper said.
Cooper said Cabarrus has moved left partly because of younger residents moving in from other states. Cooper said Democrats’ most plausible first gains would likely be in state House districts, not countywide offices, because county commission races are at-large contests that historically are harder to flip.
“My guess would be that this cycle is maybe not the one to where Cabarrus will break,” Cooper said, “but it will likely break in the next few cycles.”
Catawba College politics professor Michael Bitzer categorized Cabarrus as one of Mecklenburg’s suburban counties that traditionally deliver some of the strongest Republican performances in the state. Now, he said, Cabarrus no longer matches that profile as cleanly as it once did, and it may be a “canary in a coal mine” for other counties near major metropolitan areas.
“Cabarrus is one of the leading types of counties that has moved from very Republican to what I would describe as competitive,” Bitzer said. “53-47 kind of falls within that range of competitiveness for political scientists.”
Like Cooper, Bitzer attributed that partly to population growth in Concord and Kannapolis and economic development that attracts newcomers.
Still, no Democrat has been elected to the Cabarrus County Commission in over 30 years and every state House and Senate seat representing any part of Cabarrus County is currently held by a Republican lawmaker.
At the same time, Democrats have won competitive races. In 2022, Democrat Diamond Staton-Williams won House District 73, a Cabarrus-based seat previously held by Republicans, before losing it in 2024 to Republican Jonathan Almond. Democrats also won several municipal races in 2025, such as the Concord City Council District 4 race, which Democrat Alvarys Santana won by a 13% margin.
Cabarrus County Democratic Party chair Rosa Culver-Sims said those local results changed expectations inside her party.
“Our municipal elections were historic. That tells you that, yeah, Democrats can win, and it is possible,” she said.
She said Democrats consider House Districts 73 and 82 and the Senate seats covering Cabarrus to be realistic targets in 2026. Culver-Sims also called Measmer’s seat vulnerable because he was appointed rather than elected and therefore has had less time to build name recognition or a public record.
Culver-Sims said she expects the national political environment in 2026 to matter as much as local factors. She said midterm elections often bring backlash against the party in the White House and believes that pattern could benefit Democratic candidates in Cabarrus next year, particularly in closely divided legislative districts.
GOP leaders say Cabarrus remains a Republican stronghold
Cabarrus County Republican Party Vice Chair Jim Quick said he considers midterm elections competitive by nature but does not believe the county is shifting away from the GOP. He cited uncontested countywide races and the party’s continued control of the county commission as indicators of the county’s overall alignment.
“If it was as pink as some of the political pundits would like it to be, I think you would see many more races being competitive,” Quick said. He said the local GOP’s goal is to “continue to work hard to make Cabarrus County a reliable stronghold.”
Quick said many unaffiliated voters lean Republican and said the party plans to emphasize law enforcement and school policies. Quick said the party intends to make the case that “conservative policies are better for their families” as it campaigns in 2026.
Measmer, who was appointed to his Senate seat last spring, said he views his district as competitive but believes voters still respond to a Republican message built around costs, schools and public safety. He said the district has changed, but the priorities of many residents have not.
Measmer also said he is focused more on local concerns than on outside assessments of competitiveness.
“I certainly feel confident. But I mean, there’s no doubt that the 34th district has been changing over the years,” Measmer said. “The rankings from the think tanks in Raleigh really don’t concern me. (The) only thing that concerns me is getting direct feedback here on the ground from my district and taking their concerns to the General Assembly.”
This story was originally published January 5, 2026 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Cabarrus County is moving left. Is 2026 the year Democrats break the GOP’s hold?."
