Atlantic hurricane season predictions are out. How many storms could NC see this year?
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is approaching, and Colorado State University has released its forecast for how many storms can be expected in the Caribbean, the Gulf and along the East Coast.
Here are their calculations and what they could mean for North Carolina.
A busier-than-average hurricane season
To make their annual hurricane season forecast, Colorado State researchers take into account current weather patterns and historical data.
In the 2025 season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, Colorado State University predicts above-normal hurricane activity with more and stronger storms than average, including:
▪ 17 named storms, which is more than the 14.4 average that occurred between 1991 and 2020
▪ 9 hurricanes, compared to an average of 7.2
▪ 4 major hurricanes, compared to 3.2 on average
How many major storms could make landfall?
Before a storm has even formed, it’s impossible to predict whether it will make landfall and where that might happen. But Colorado State says historical data and current patterns suggest:
▪ There’s a 51% chance of a major storm making landfall somewhere on the continental U.S. coastline (compared to a 43% chance from 1880 to 2020)
▪ There’s a 26% chance of major storm hitting the U.S. East Coast (including North Carolina), compared to a 21% chance on average
▪ There’s a 33% chance of a major storm hitting the Gulf Coast
Remember that a hurricane or tropical storm doesn’t have to make landfall in North Carolina to have an impact in the state; storms that came ashore elsewhere have had devastating effects here.
What weather patterns will drive this year’s hurricane season?
One factor is ocean temperatures, and Colorado State says that while surface-water temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are generally warmer than normal, they’re not matching the record temperatures of last year.
The La Niña that’s been in place since December is expected to dissipate in the coming months, transitioning to neural conditions. Typically, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says,
La Niña makes it easier for hurricanes to develop and strengthen, so it’s good news that this one is expected to be out the door before June 1.
Forecasters at the Columbia Climate School say there is “a strong preference” for neutral conditions through November.
How accurate were 2024 hurricane season forecasts?
Last year brought an extremely active season with 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes, exactly what Colorado State’s forecasters predicted in April 2024 and in their June 2024 update.
The university predicted a total of 23 named storms in their April forecast and raised that to 25 by July, which overshot the mark, researchers said. In 2024, there were 18 named storms.
When is North Carolina most likely to see a hurricane in 2025?
Colorado State University doesn’t try to time hurricanes in its seasonal forecast.
But the Farmers’ Almanac boldly predicts that:
▪ A hurricane will threaten Florida’s Gulf coast between Aug. 8 and 11, 2025, then move northeast and along the southern coast.
▪ On the same dates the next month, Sept. 8-11, 2025, there will be a hurricane threat on the Atlantic coast.
What storm names are on the horizon?
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will start with Andrea, Barry and Chantal.
This story was originally published April 4, 2025 at 1:24 PM with the headline "Atlantic hurricane season predictions are out. How many storms could NC see this year?."
