An unexpected win to remember for NC State, but only lingering regrets for Wake Forest
For all the times N.C. State fans convinced themselves the ACC had it out for the Wolfpack — a belief that presumes a degree of forethought and competency for which there has historically been little evidence, Karl Hess’ vendettas aside — this was one day where you could at least see the logic in it.
Wake Forest remains one of the ACC’s last and best hopes to avoid an embarrassing three-team showing in the NCAA tournament, which meant the league had every reason to hope the Demon Deacons would deal promptly with the Wolfpack the way so many other ACC teams have this season, most recently and notably North Carolina.
In this case, what was very good for N.C. State was even worse for the ACC. The Wolfpack jumped out to an 11-0 lead early, then outscored Wake Forest 29-12 over the final eight minutes to post its biggest win of the season. Really: The Wolfpack had been 0-14 in Quadrant 1 and 2 games before Saturday’s 85-73 win, which fell in the second tier of the NCAA’s classification system.
Those quadrants are a big part of the ACC’s problem. There are so many bad teams, the good teams don’t have many opportunities to improve their CVs. And a loss to a bad team — like the 4-12 Wolfpack — becomes catastrophic.
“The hard part for teams like us, in our league, is the home-game opportunities,” Wake Forest coach Steve Forbes said. “You know how many home Quad 1 games I’ve had in the league in four years? Five. Four Duke, one Virginia. I talked to my friend Chris Jans the other day, at Mississippi State, he’s got eight Quad 1 games this year. We’ve had five in four years. It forces you to go on the road and really play well. That’s hard. We have six wins on the road, and only one of them was Quad 1. We have three Quad 3 wins on the road, in the ACC.”
It’s not great. Then again, winning the winnable games is even more essential. First do no harm.
So where does this result, triumphant for N.C. State and catastrophic for Wake Forest, leave things?
Duke is all but assured of a No. 1 seed. Louisville and Clemson can sleep at night. That’s the three. Beyond that trio, it’s going to take a heck of a finish by one or all of Wake Forest, North Carolina or Southern Methodist — or a surprise ACC tournament champion, the way the Wolfpack was last March — to bolster the ACC’s contingent.
For Wake Forest, coming off a very good win at SMU, last week’s home loss to Florida State was bad, but this was worse. Now, Wake probably needs to beat Duke – either on Freshman Night at Cameron on March 3 or in a potential ACC semifinal in Charlotte — without further screwing up otherwise to ensure a place in the field.
N.C. State coach Kevin Keatts, whose 2019 squad would probably have gotten into the field if judged by today’s metrics and procedures, albeit in an extraordinary ACC that claimed three of the four No. 1 seeds, certainly knows the feeling.
“I hope they make the NCAA tournament, because they deserve to,” N.C. State coach Kevin Keatts said. “Our problem with our league is our numbers, and a couple teams’ numbers around our league could hurt them from getting in. I know that I played the NET game for years. I think they’re a tournament team. I think they’re really good, and hopefully they have a chance to be able to play.”
Wake, at least, still has the ACC tournament to get right. While the Demon Deacons fret their NCAA profile, N.C. State is still on the outside looking in for Charlotte, even after Saturday’s win.
The Wolfpack still has a few paths into the Final Fifteen if it can conjure up another win or two and get some help. Winning at Syracuse on Wednesday would be invaluable in five-win tiebreakers if Syracuse loses out. But it’s probably going to take six wins to even start crunching the math after Notre Dame’s win over Pittsburgh Saturday. (Speaking of the ACC’s issues, the Panthers once looked like an NCAA tournament lock, only to play their way entirely out of the conversation.)
Of course, if Paul McNeil had played like this all season, the Wolfpack might not be in this position. He was almost single-handedly responsible for N.C. State’s 11-0 opening — putback, 3-pointer, offensive rebound, assist — on his way to a career-high 24, the third double-figure game of his career, all coming in the past four games. The light has finally come on for the talented freshman from Richmond County, unfortunately a little late for N.C. State.
The Wolfpack is going down swinging, at least, bouncing back from Wednesday’s no-show in Chapel Hill with a late-won personal victory that wreaked not insignificant damage to the ACC in general.
The league desperately needed Wake Forest to win out and give a good account of itself against Duke. Instead, the Demon Deacons are in deep trouble. Forbes said it’s not something they talk about, but it’s not exactly a secret.
“Our biggest thing out in front of us is winning the next game and getting the double-bye in the ACC tournament,” Forbes said. “It’s not anything to do with the NCAA tournament. If you take care of those things, at some point those other things take care of themselves.”
That’s the thing about the ACC this season, though. With so much weight, things that took care of themselves in the past no longer do. There’s no backing into an NCAA bid in this league anymore. You have to go and take one, at every turn, no exceptions, no excuses.
N.C. State will remember Saturday, and hope it was a glimpse into McNeil’s future. Wake Forest will only have regrets.
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This story was originally published February 22, 2025 at 5:56 PM with the headline "An unexpected win to remember for NC State, but only lingering regrets for Wake Forest."
