Scouting the Lightning: What the Canes can expect in the second-round playoff series
Despite the overall parity in the modern National Hockey League, it’s still rare for a defending Stanley Cup champion to miss the playoffs the following season. We’re talking three-times-in-a-16-team-playoff-era rare.
It’s no shock that the defending bubble-hockey champion Tampa Bay Lightning is back in the hunt. What it took to get them there — legally — was a feat of salary cap gymnastics.
That the Lightning found a way to stash injured superstar Nikita Kucherov on the long-term injured reserve long enough to postpone his salary cap hit for a full season is pure genius. Devious, but genius. Against the spirit of the salary cap rules. But genius. Borderline unfair, but, well, you get the point.
But, the Lightning is far more than just Kucherov. The team did make the playoffs without him, and they did so also without captain and team lightning rod Steven Stamkos (whom the team had on the long-term injury list last season …).
So, with a quick turnaround for the Canes this week as they shift their gaze from Music City to the Southeast, here’s what the team will be looking for against Tampa — and what you should, too — starting with Game 1.
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The Bolts know how to score
The one thing you might question when reinserting Kucherov into the lineup is what that could do to the team’s chemistry. The lines had been pretty well established over the 56-game season, and certain players were used to playing with one another.
But adding Kucherov? No problem.
The Lightning leads the league in goals in the playoffs with 24, and the scoring dispersal is pretty even. Brayden Point and Alex Killorn each have four goals for Tampa, Kucherov and Stamkos have three each and Anthony Cirelli, Yanni Gourde, Ondrej Palat and Ross Colton have two apiece. All four lines are represented, which makes matching up against the Lightning tough.
One thing Tampa doesn’t have is a goal from its blue line. Not that it’s seemed to matter so far, but it could. Victor Hedman and Mikhail Sergachev are certainly capable, and Hedman does have eight assists (though seven of those are on the power play), but if the Canes are able to pinch off their forward production there is an avenue to slow down the scoring machine.
Just how good is the Lightning on the power play?
To say that the Tampa Bay Lightning is good on the power play is to say that Luciano Pavarotti is ‘OK’ at singing. Among the 16 teams in the first round, the Lightning is second only to the Avalanche in power-play percentage, clicking at a 40 percent clip. That allowed Tampa to average four goals per game over six games against Florida. A top unit that includes Stamkos, Kucherov, Point, Hedman and Killorn has been fun to watch, even when they haven’t scored (which hasn’t been often).
Part of the series against Nashville that so frustrated the Hurricanes’ faithful was an apparent disparity in penalties (which Nashville coach John Hynes debunked during a news conference between Games 5 and 6). The outlier in an otherwise evenly called series was Game 2, a game in which the Predators did a great job goading the Canes into retaliatory penalties. If the Canes slip and take a spate of penalties against that Tampa power play, that’s trouble.
Surprising in the crease
One of the big pieces of the Lightning’s run to the title a year ago was the play of hulking keeper Andrei Vasilevskiy, who posted a 1.90 goals-against average and a .941 save percentage, which was second only to Carey Price of Montreal among goalies who played more than 10 games in the playoffs.
In this year’s Round 1, though, against an equally talented offensive club in Florida, his numbers weren’t so gaudy. He’s allowed 16 goals in six games, a 2.64 GAA. His 16 goals allowed are third-most in the playoffs to date, behind only Pittsburgh’s Tristan Jarry and Nashville’s Juuse Saros (both of whom have been eliminated). With the Canes top scoring units still finding their footing in these playoffs, this would seem to be a favorable matchup, at least for now.
Why Tampa is in a different division
For the past seven seasons, the Hurricanes have played in the Metropolitan Division. And for the first five years of that division’s existence, the Canes didn’t finish higher than sixth in the eight-team grouping. In 2019 and 2020, they were fourth and earned playoff berths under two different formats.
The Lightning, meanwhile, after being in the Southeast Division with Carolina for years, was separated from its former division rivals to form the “Flortheast,” a scrambled Eastern Division that included mostly former Adams Division foes, plus Florida teams. So, with scheduling being what it was, despite Carolina being one of the more geographically adjacent NHL cities to Tampa, the teams played far fewer games against each other than in previous seasons.
That changed this season, with the teams meeting eight times over 56 games. The Canes went 4-3-1 in those games, with Carolina winning the most recent of the eight meetings, 4-1 on April 20.
Hurricanes vs. Lightning
When: Sunday, May 30, 5 p.m.
Where: PNC Arena
Watch: NBCSN
This story was originally published May 28, 2021 at 10:37 AM with the headline "Scouting the Lightning: What the Canes can expect in the second-round playoff series."
