What Vegas Thinks: ‘Pretty significant movement’ on Gamecocks-Tar Heels line
Early lines have been available for South Carolina football’s first game in 2019 for months now, not to mention odds for the Gamecocks’ other games and SEC title chances.
Now, with only a few days left before USC and North Carolina square off in Charlotte to kick off their seasons, the Gamecocks have released their depth chart, and the Tar Heels have named a true freshman as their starting quarterback.
The State spoke Monday with longtime gambling industry reporter David Purdum, of ESPN Chalk, to get his thoughts on the betting side of USC-UNC, as well as how Vegas feels overall about the Gamecocks this season.
The State: What’s been the history of the line and which was has it been moving lately?
David Purdum: There’s been some pretty significant movement, just recently. Today, in fact, it went from eight all the way to 9.5 in some books. It opened around eight, dropped back down to 7.5 earlier, but then some money came in on South Carolina today and pushed that number back up.
Now making the number move from 8.5 to nine, 7.5 to eight, those aren’t what they call key numbers, but it is a pretty significant move from the opener, which again … South Carolina was about a 7.5 point favorite when it opened, now up to 9.5 in most books.
TS: How hard is it for Vegas to evaluate a game where one team has a new coach and freshman quarterback like North Carolina?
DP: It’s tougher, and they will move the numbers more aggressively leading into the first week then they will in November, they won’t do as big of line movements. I just did a story where the margin of victory is like 20 points in August/September games going back like 20 years. It dips down to 17.5 in November and October. So the line differential is also like that. The point spread will be closer to the actual margin of victory later than it is earlier in the season, when everyone’s guessing a little bit.
TS: So more volatile?
DP: Yeah, that’s the exact word I used. September is very volatile. Point spreads move more significantly, you’ll seem some larger point spreads, point spreads of 3.5, four points, up to seven points here and there in September, when it’s very rare when you see that in other months.
TS: With several days left before the game, do you anticipate any more big changes in the USC-UNC line?
DP: Barring any news that comes out, an injury or a suspension or something, it’s already moved pretty significantly. If it gets to 10, you will see some of the sharper guys that like to play numbers more than teams, where if it gets to 10, that’s obviously a key number in the margin of victory with everything, so you would probably see them take North Carolina plus-10, since it’s already moved two points.
TS: How is Vegas evaluating the Gamecocks’ season as a whole considering how talented they’re expected to be, but with such a difficult schedule?
DP: Yeah, they’re long shots for sure — 1,000-to-1 to win the national title right now, 100-to-1 to win the SEC, Jake Bentley is 300-to-1 to win the Heisman. And the season win total (over/under) for the Gamecocks right now is sitting at 5.5. So that shows you, yes they are talented, but their schedule is daunting. That’s a pretty low win total for them.
This story was originally published August 26, 2019 at 6:22 PM with the headline "What Vegas Thinks: ‘Pretty significant movement’ on Gamecocks-Tar Heels line."
