UNC basketball resigned to fact that its NCAA tournament hopes have all but faded away
North Carolina has come to that part of its season, where it seems like only divine intervention will help the Tar Heels receive an NCAA tournament bid.
The Heels missed out on a chance to notch a key win Thursday, losing to Virginia 68-59 in the ACC tournament quarterfinals. Now, the long wait for Sunday’s NCAA’s tournament selection show begins, with the Heels holding onto slim hope that they will hear their name called.
“You just gotta pray for the best,” junior guard Caleb Love said.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has UNC among his next four out teams. CBS Sports Jerry Palm still had the Heels listed in the first four out.
The metrics don’t offer much support for Carolina. The Heels rank 47th in the NCAA’s NET rankings after going 1-9 in Quad 1, which in theory are the toughest games. They were 6-4 in Quad 2. It’s not the only metric the selection committee uses, but it factors into decisions. There have been worse teams in the NET to make it, including Rutgers last season. The Scarlet Knights were 77th and still got an at-large bid.
Those slim hopes for the Heels are hanging partly on the fact that they did not lose any bad games. UNC (20-13) went 13-0 against teams ranked in Quads 3 and 4.
A team like Clemson that finished with the No. 3 seed in the ACC, will have to account for four losses in Quads 3 and 4, including to last-place Louisville, and Loyola-Chicago, which finished in last place in the Atlantic 10.
UNC coach Hubert Davis said he believed the league has been “undervalued,” but following the Virginia loss he also seemed resigned to accept their bleak outlook.
“I’m sad and disappointed for them that we’re in this position,” Davis said.
It used to be a team two games over .500 in the ACC, like Carolina’s 11-9 record, would surely have an at-large bid waiting. But that’s changed the past two seasons with the league taking a dip. The high-end talent has declined; the marquee non-conference victories have been few; and with it the national perception no longer leans toward giving the league’s teams the benefit of doubt.
Last season, Wake Forest and Virginia finished 13-7 and 12-8, respectively, in conference play, and neither received an NCAA bid.
The ACC ranks as the seventh-best conference this season according to Ken Pomeroy’s algorithm, falling behind the Mountain West. The Big Ten is second at KenPom.com, but the ACC did win the ACC-Big Ten Challenge. Carolina also owns wins over Ohio State and Michigan, but lost at Indiana.
“Our record may say otherwise, but this team is definitely a tournament team,” guard R.J. Davis said. “And I believe that with all my heart.”
That won’t likely be enough.
Carolina would become the first team ranked No. 1 in the preseason polls to not make the tournament since the NCAA expanded it to 64 teams in 1985.
One of the most frustrating parts of the season for forward Armando Bacot was that he didn’t even know when exactly it went wrong.
“I don’t really know,” Bacot said. “Honestly, that’s maybe a question I can answer maybe a week from now or something. It’s definitely something that we all didn’t imagine, unless we all just weren’t good enough individually.”
The question now that most players were non-committal when asked if they would play in the National Invitational Tournament if they don’t get into the NCAA.
None were adamantly against it, but many seemed to hedge toward what Bacot said.
“I’d be capable of it (playing), but interested? I don’t really know,” he said before adding, “I’m going to play if that’s what coach tell us to do, but I mean, that’s not something I want to do.”
Love was more open to the idea of the NIT if everyone else was.
“I’d want to play it because these are my guys, I obviously want to win something for this team,” Love said. “Whatever is in the best for this team, that’s what I want to do.”
This story was originally published March 10, 2023 at 1:08 PM with the headline "UNC basketball resigned to fact that its NCAA tournament hopes have all but faded away."