UNC basketball takes NCAA bubble watch into ACC tournament. Do the Heels have to win it?
North Carolina forward Armando Bacot responded the best way he knew how when asked, after the regular season finale loss to Duke, if he ever expected the Tar Heels to be headed into the ACC tournament with so much uncertainty about its NCAA tournament status.
“No,” he said, “but I’m here.”
Most tournament prognosticators don’t have UNC in the tournament. CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm has Carolina in his “first four out.” ESPN’s Joe Lunardi as the Heels in his “next four out.” And Bracketmatrix.com, which compiled 107 mock NCAA tournament brackets, only has them appearing on two.
No one truly knows how precarious the Tar Heels are positioned expect the NCAA tournament committee, which has already started meeting to work its way through selecting and seeding 36 at-large bids and 32 automatic ones for Sunday’s selection show.
It’s why UNC coach Hubert Davis was so adamant that he wasn’t buying into the notion that the only way the Heels would get into the tournament is to win four games in four days in Greensboro to earn the ACC’s automatic bid.
Perhaps they don’t need to, but what is clear is that Carolina lacks enough marquee victories to be considered a lock. Here’s what has to happen for the Heels to improve their position before Selection Sunday:
Don’t lose in the ACC tournament second round
Beating the winner of No. 10 seed Boston College and No. 15 seed Louisville is the baseline requirement. The strongest case for Carolina to get an at-large bid right now might just be that it doesn’t have any bad losses.
Other bubble teams like Clemson, which not only lost to the ACC’s last-placed team in Louisville, but the Atlantic 10’s last-placed team Loyola (Chicago). South Carolina finished just outside the Southeastern Conference cellar, but it registers as a horrible loss too.
Winning Quad 1 games in the NCAA NET rankings is impressive, but not losing to teams in Quads 3 and 4 can make the wrong kind of impression too.
Beat Virginia for a second time
The Heels win over Virginia is the only Quad 1 victory that has stood -- so far. The Cavaliers are right at No. 30 in NET, which is the cutoff to qualify in a victory at home. On a neutral court, the Quad 1 range jumps to teams in the top 50.
Carolina is 1-9 in Quad 1 games, but the NET is more volatile than the stock market. Beating UVa would likely knock the Heels regular season win back down to a Quad 2 classification. But beating a team as consistent as UVA twice would be worthy of attention.
A loss to the Hoos, would likely leave the Heels rooting for every conference result to end in chalk. They simply could not afford to see bid-stealers create more competition on the bubble.
Hope to play (and beat) NC State in the semifinals
Here’s where things get a bit tricky. Clemson is the No. 3 seed, but right now on paper, it would actually be better for UNC to play No. 6 seed N.C. State. The Wolfpack have the higher NET ranking at No. 41 and would qualify as a Quad 1 game.
If Carolina played the Tigers (61), the NCAA could use it as a de facto elimination game. Because chances are, both teams are not going to the tourney.
A loss in the semifinals would leave the Heels relying on two wins over Virginia as the strongest case it could make for inclusion.
ACC tournament championship
If Carolina does make it to Saturday, assuming it would have won two more significant games, would that be enough? Only the committee can answer that and they’ll only know as they weigh results from other conference tournaments.
So the only sure way to get to the NCAA tournament, is to win it all. UNC guard R.J. Davis doesn’t believe that’s out of the realm of possibility.
“Let’s just regroup, go on to Greensboro and just play Carolina basketball,” Davis said. “I believe is us even if no one else does.”
Here’s how the Heels stack up against other potential bubble teams:
UNC (19-12)
NET: 49
Records vs Quad 1: 1-9 vs Q2: 6-3 vs Q3: 6-0 vs Q4: 6-0
Best wins: Virginia (30), NC State (41), College of Charleston (53), Michigan (54)
Bad losses: None
Current trend: Won three of four
Next: Wednesday vs Boston College/Louisville
Utah State (23-7)
Net: 21
Records vs Q1: 1-4 Q2: 8-1 Q3: 12-0 Q4: 2-2
Best wins: Boise State (27), Nevada (36), New Mexico (50)
Bad losses: SMU (210), Weber State (199)
Current trend: Won five straight
Next: Thursday in Mountain West tournament
Nevada (22-9)
Net: 36
Records vs Q1: 4-5 Q2: 4-2 Q3: 9-2 Q4: 4-0
Best wins: San Diego State (16), Utah State (21), Boise State (27)
Bad losses: at Wyoming (171), Loyola Marymout (107)
Current trend: Lost two of last four
Next: Thursday vs San Jose State (96)
Oklahoma State (17-14)
Net: 43
Records vs Q1: 6-11 Q2: 3-2 Q3: 3-1 Q4: 5-0
Best wins: TCU (28), West Virginia (24), Iowa State (20) twice
Bad losses: Southern Illinois (122)
Current trend: Lost five of last six
Next: Wednesday vs Oklahoma (66)
Mississippi State (19-10)
Net: 46
Records vs Q1: 4-7 Q2: 3-3 Q3: 5-1 Q4: 8-0
Best wins: Marquette (13), at Arkansas (18), TCU (22), Texas A&M (23)
Bad losses: Georgia (153)
Current trend: Lost two of last five
Next: Thursday vs Florida (59)
Michigan (17-14)
Net: 54
Records vs Q1: 3-11 Q2: 5-2 Q3: 5-0 Q4: 4-1
Best wins: Maryland (26), Rutgers (40), Michigan State (31)
Bad losses: Central Michigan (329)
Current trend: Lost two last three, all in overtime
Next: vs Rutgers (40)
Penn State (19-12)
Net: 56
Records vs Q1: 5-6 Q2: 4-5 Q3: 4-1 Q4: 6-0
Best wins: Maryland (26), Indiana (29), Illinois (33), Iowa (37), Northwestern (38)
Bad losses: at Nebraska (92)
Current trend: Won five of last six
Next: Thursday vs Illinois (33)
Clemson (22-9)
NET 61
Records vs Q1: 4-3 Q2: 3-2 Q3: 6-2 Q4: 9-2
Best wins: Duke (25), NC State (41) twice, at Pitt (58)
Bad losses: South Carolina (238), Loyola Chicago (270), Louisville (311)
Current trend: Won three of last four
Next: Thursday in ACC quarterfinals
Arizona State (20-11)
Net: 65
Records vs Q1: 4-5 Q2: 4-5 Q3: 6-0 Q4: 6-1
Best wins: Arizona (11), Creighton (14), Michigan (54)
Bad losses: Texas Southern (313)
Current trend: Lost three of last five
Next: vs Oregon State (221)
Wisconsin (17-13)
Net: 78
Records vs Q1: 6-7 Q2: 5-5 Q3: 1-1 Q4: 5-0
Best wins: Marquette (13), Maryland (26), Iowa (37)
Bad losses: at Nebraska (92)
Current trend: Lost three of last five
Next: vs Ohio State (63)
Vanderbilt (18-13)
Net 83
Records vs Q1: 4-9 Q2: 5-1 Q3: 4-2 Q4: 5-1
Best wins: Tennessee (3), Arkansas (18), Kentucky (19), Auburn (32), Mississippi State (46), Pitt (58)
Bad losses: LSU (155), Grambling (178)
Current trend: Won eight of last nine
Next: Friday in SEC tournament
This story was originally published March 7, 2023 at 11:38 AM with the headline "UNC basketball takes NCAA bubble watch into ACC tournament. Do the Heels have to win it?."