As UNC basketball bubble watch moves into high gear, here’s everything you need to know
Beating N.C. State on Saturday didn’t help North Carolina improve its NCAA Tournament chances. Neither would beating Syracuse on Monday at the Dean E. Smith Center. But the Tar Heels sure would sabotage their chances of an at-large bid with a loss.
As the regular season nears closing, it’s a good time to remember the tournament adage that more bubble teams play their way out of the tournament than into it.
The case for Carolina largely stems from playing a challenging non-conference schedule that included Purdue, Kentucky and Tennessee. Although the Tar Heels only had one win against a ranked team (Michigan was No. 24 at the time), their home loss to Pittsburgh last week is the the only time they’ve truly been upset.
In other words, the Heels have won the games they were supposed to win. That, alone, won’t earn them a bid. But it’s enough to keep them in the conversation.
Shade of Orange
The Orange were in the same position last season as Carolina is now. Syracuse had a NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) ranking of 40 and a 1-7 record against Quad 1 opponents. Yet the Orange managed to get an 11 seed as an at-large bid and avoided playing in the First Four games.
Carolina currently sits at No. 40 in NET with a 1-7 Q1 ranking. The lack of quality wins sticks out for sure, but that Pitt loss is UNC’s only defeat to teams in Q3 or Q4.
Most prognosticators have the Heels in the tournament if the selection show was today. According to Bracketmatrix.com, Carolina was on 93 out of 106 brackets it charts with an average of an No. 11 seed.
How they finish the the regular season and perform in the ACC tournament will factor into their ultimate fate.
Closing out strong
Carolina, which is 5-0 against the Orange at the Smith Center, needs a win on Monday, but it could make things a lot easier with a win on Saturday.
Beating Duke would go a long way to helping the Tar Heels feel comfortable about their NCAA standing. It would be a marquee win on a resume that otherwise lacks one. It would add a second Q1 win. But it’s also a daunting task considering the ease with which the Blue Devils handled Carolina in their 87-67 win in Chapel Hill.
It’s also important that the Heels win at least one game in Brooklyn during the ACC tournament. UNC is currently third in ACC standings and is guaranteed to finish no lower than tied for fourth. But there is a scenario where it would lose tiebreakers and be the fifth seed in the tournament.
Louisville was a bubble team last season that did not get an at-large bid after losing its opening game in the ACC tournament to Duke. The Cardinals had a 56 NET ranking and were 1-6 against Q1 competition.
Memphis was No. 52 in NET rankings and did win a game in the American Athletic Conference tournament. But the Tigers were destined for the NIT because of their 0-4 Q1 record. In the short history of the NET — which replaced the RPI (Ratings Percentage Index) in the 2018-19 season — no team has received an at-large bid without at least one Q1 win.
Why Maize doesn’t matter
Michigan has hovered around the top 30 in NET and their final three games (Michigan State, Iowa, Ohio State) present opportunities for quality wins. The Wolverines could vault back into the top 30, which would make the Heels’ 71-51 win in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge count as another Q1 win.
But what’s good for metrics doesn’t necessarily mean it’s best for Carolina. At this point, the Wolverines are just another bubble team Carolina is potentially competing against for an at-large bid.
It may actually be better for the Heels if Michigan gets buried by its schedule and loses its way off the tournament bubble completely.
Beware of the bid stealers
St. Louis last season by all accounts was worthy of an at-large bid with non-conference wins against LSU and N.C. State. But when Georgetown won the Big East tournament as an eight seed and Oregon State claimed the Pac-12 as a six seed, teams that would not have otherwise made the tournament were now in and it forced teams like the Billikens and the Cardinals out.
How they stack up
Here’s how the Heels compare to other bubble teams:
UNC (21-8)
NET: 40
Best wins: Michigan, Virginia Tech
Bad losses: Pittsburgh
Current trend: Won last three
Remaining: vs. Syracuse, at Duke
TCU (18-9)
NET: 49
Best wins: Iowa State, LSU, Texas Tech
Bad losses: None
Current trend: Lost four of last six
Remaining: vs. Kansas, at Kansas, at West Virginia
Michigan (15-12)
NET: 37
Best wins: Purdue, Iowa, San Diego St.
Bad losses: Minnesota
Current trend: Lost three of last five.
Remaining: vs. Michigan State, vs. Iowa, at Ohio State
San Francisco (23-8)
NET: 28
Best wins: Davidson, BYU
Bad losses: Portland
Current trend: Won four of last six
Remaining: WCC tournament
Rutgers (16-12)
NET: 83
Best wins: Purdue, Ohio State, Illinois, Wisconsin
Bad losses: Lafayette, UMass
Current trend: Lost last three.
Remaining: at Indiana, vs. Penn State
Loyola, Chicago (22-7)
NET: 31
Best wins: San Francisco, at Missouri State, at Vanderbilt
Bad losses: vs Drake
Current trend: Won four of last six
Remaining: vs Bradley in Missouri Valley tournament
Indiana (18-10)
NET: 44
Best wins: Notre Dame, Purdue, Ohio State
Bad losses: Penn State
Current trend: Won last two (after losing five straight)
Remaining: vs Rutgers, at Purdue
Memphis (17-9)
NET: 42
Best wins: Alabama, Virginia Tech
Bad losses: at Georgia, at East Carolina
Current trend: Won eight of last nine
Remaining: at South Florida, vs. Houston
SMU (20-7)
NET: 47
Best wins: Houston, Memphis (twice), Dayton
Bad losses: Loyola Marymount, Missouri
Current trend: Won four of last six
Remaining: vs. Cincinnati, vs. Tulane
San Diego State (18-7)
NET: 30
Best wins: St. Mary’s, Colorado State
Bad losses: none
Current trend: Won six of last seven
Remaining: at Wyoming, vs. Fresno State, at Nevada
BYU (19-9)
NET: 50
Best wins: San Diego State, Oregon, San Francisco
Bad losses: Pacific
Current trend: Won four of last five
Remaining: West Coast Conference tournament
Oregon (17-11)
NET: 58
Best wins: SMU, UCLA (twice), USC
Bad losses: California, Arizona State (twice)
Current trend: Lost three of last four.
Remaining: at Washington, at Washington State
This story was originally published February 28, 2022 at 6:10 AM with the headline "As UNC basketball bubble watch moves into high gear, here’s everything you need to know."