UNC basketball searching for a big win as NCAA tournament bubble watch starts early
North Carolina coach Hubert Davis isn’t concerned about the Tar Heels record in Quad 1 games and how that relates to the NCAA Tournament, because Davis doesn’t reference the NCAA’s Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, and doesn’t know what “Quad 1” means.
“Honestly, I have no idea,” Davis said during a video conference Friday. “I don’t look at that stuff. I don’t pay attention that stuff.”
For the record, Q1 games are considered teams ranked in the top 30 NET for home games, teams ranked in the top 50 for neutral-site games, and teams ranked in the top 75 for road games. Carolina was 0-7 in Q1 games until Friday morning, when it earned its first win without playing.
The Heels’ first Q1 win came two months after the fact. Michigan, which was ranked No. 24 when the Heels won 72-51 in December, was No. 47 in NET on Thursday before upsetting Purdue 82-58. The Wolverines (13-9) jumped to No. 30 on Friday morning, and that game is now classified as a Q1 win for Carolina.
With seven of Michigan’s last eight games — including five at home — against Q1 opponents, there’s no guarantee it will stay among the top 30 teams. That’s part of the reason why Davis doesn’t bother talking about it. So much can change from game to game.
“I preach to the players all the time, eliminate the noise and focus on your preparation, your practice and your play,” Davis said. “If you just focus on the process, everything else will take care of itself. And so that’s the only thing that I’m thinking about, is for our team to continue to improve and get better every day. And wherever it ends up, it ends up.”
Carolina is preparing to close out the regular season in an unfamiliar position — with a borderline NCAA tournament resume, in an unrecognizable ACC that doesn’t offer much help to rectify the situation.
The remaining schedule for the Tar Heels (17-7, 9-4 ACC) isn’t like a typical year in the league, where wins over multiple opponents could ensure their ticket to the Big Dance. Instead, the ACC is filled with potential pitfalls that could keep them from making it.
UNC only has two Q1 games remaining in the regular season: at Virginia Tech (44 NET) on Feb. 19 and the regular season finale at Duke (11 NET) on March 5. The ACC tournament in Brooklyn, depending how the brackets are set, would have Wake Forest (33 NET) as the only other Q1 team in the league ranked in the top 50 of NET.
The NCAA created its NET rankings as a metric for the tournament selection committee to replace the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) prior to the 2018-19 season. It changes daily after the results of games are factored. Since it began using the NET to consider at-large bids, no team has ever made the tournament without at least one Quad 1 win.
The Heels could rest a lot easier if they could pull out road wins against the Hokies and Blue Devils. They did beat the Hokies 78-68 last month in Chapel Hill, but they haven’t won in Blacksburg, Va., since a 75-70 victory on Jan. 24, 2016.
Winning at Cameron Indoor Stadium seems to be much more difficult of the two, given Carolina’s 87-67 home loss to Duke last Saturday. That’s not to mention it will be the final home game of coach Mike Krzyzewski’s storied career. But UNC did win at Duke last season in an empty arena due to the university’s COVID-19 restrictions, so their current players have at least had success there.
According to Bracketmatrix.com, which is a collection of 120 different tournament projections, Carolina is listed on 85 of 112 brackets with an average seed of 10.9. ESPN.com’s Joe Lunardi has the Heels in the “Last four in” and playing as a 12 seed in the First Four games in Dayton. CBSSports.com’s Jerry Palm doesn’t currently have them listed at all.
Carolina can look to Syracuse from last season as a reason for optimism — pending it ends with at least one game qualifying as a Q1 win. The Orange were No. 40 in the NET prior to Selection Sunday in 2021. Their Q1 record was 1-7 and their non-conference strength of schedule was 182. Syracuse received an at-large bid as an 11 seed in the tournament and reached the Sweet 16.
The Heels are currently 41 in the latest NET rankings with a 1-7 Q1 record. Their non-conference strength of schedule is not yet revealed through the NET, but considering they played Kentucky (4 NET), Purdue (9 NET), and Tennessee (10 NET) it could end up helping.
UNC senior forward Leaky Black said the team hasn’t had any conversations about Q1 wins or the NCAA Tournament.
“I feel like our backs’ against the wall,” Black said. “We don’t have the record that we would want so you can’t leave anything out there. Anything can happen and we all know that so we just try to play as hard as we can.”
The good news for Carolina is it doesn’t have any bad losses. That’s not to be confused with losing badly, like the 29-point debacle against Kentucky. But those Wildcats are potentially in line for a No. 1 seed. The Heels are undefeated against Quad 2 teams (3-0), Quad 3 teams (8-0) and Quad 4 teams (5-0).
They’ll have to keep it that way, especially since the majority of their remaining games are against Q3 teams: Syracuse (82), Florida State (96), Louisville (124), and N.C. State (132). Pittsburgh (184) is a Q4 game. A loss in any one of those games would drag Carolina’s NET down, and possibly its NCAA at-large chances with it.
This story was originally published February 11, 2022 at 6:10 AM with the headline "UNC basketball searching for a big win as NCAA tournament bubble watch starts early."