Duke basketball tops the ACC in multiple analytics metrics, despite early-season losses
New coach, new players and, yet, with March here, Duke basketball tops ACC basketball in several important national metrics.
Recent losses by teams ahead of Duke in the ACC standings, like Virginia and Miami, combined with the Blue Devils’ current five-game winning streak, vaulted Duke to the best NET and KenPom ratings among all league teams.
Tied for fourth in the ACC standings, Duke (22-8, 13-6 ACC) is up to No. 23 in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET), a sorting apparatus the tournament selection committee uses that gives value to each win and loss. The Blue Devils trailed both Virginia and Miami prior to last weekend.
But, on Saturday, Virginia (22-6, 14-5) lost 71-63 at North Carolina while Miami (23-6, 14-5) lost at home to Florida State, 86-85. So, as of Wednesday, Virginia is No. 30 while Miami is No. 35 in the NET.
Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency ratings, which are also used by the committee, have Duke at No. 33, just ahead of Miami (37) and Virginia (38). That’s despite both the Cavaliers and Hurricanes bouncing back to win on Tuesday night.
That Duke is first in the ACC with those metrics speaks to the league’s overall weakness this season. Last season, the ACC had three teams finish in KenPom’s top 20 (Duke at No. 8, UNC at No. 16 and Virginia Tech at No. 19).
In 2021, Virginia (15) and Florida State (19) were among the top 20. Back in 2019, the ACC had five teams in the top 20.
Nevertheless, here Duke is with the ACC’s best metrics, thanks to great play in February.
Duke has won eight of its past 10 games, making a top-four seed in the ACC tournament possible. The top four finishers in the regular-season standings earn double-byes into Thursday’s tournament quarterfinals.
Currently tied with Clemson for fourth place, the Blue Devils must beat North Carolina on Saturday night, while the Tigers would have to lose to Notre Dame in order for Duke to get the double-bye.
Here’s a look at where Duke stands through 29 games, looking at metrics and tournament bracket projections, along with how the Blue Devils’ remaining schedule can help or hurt its NCAA tournament seed.
The Metrics
The NET places each win or loss in one of four quadrants, which allows it to rank teams.
Quad 1 games are home games against teams ranked 1-30, neutral site games against teams 1-50 and road games against teams 1-75.
Quad 2 games are home games against 31-75, neutral against 51-100 and away against 76-135.
Quad 3 games are home vs 76-160, neutral vs 101-200 and away vs. 135-240
Quad 4 games are home vs 161-363, neutral vs 201-363 and away vs. 241-363
Entering Saturday’s game at North Carolina, the Blue Devils are 2-7 in Quad 1 games, 7-1 against Quad 2, 4-0 vs Quad 3 and 9-0 against Quad 4.
One of Duke’s losses, the 81-70 setback at Wake Forest on Dec. 20, has fallen into Quad 2 and, given the Demon Deacons’ play of late, doesn’t look likely to return to Quad 1. At No. 86 in the NET, Wake Forest (18-12, 10-9 ACC) has lost three of its past four games, including 71-69 at home to Boston College on Tuesday night.
That loss to the No. 86 team though, represents Duke’s worst loss, which is better than many of its NET peers. Among the top 25 teams, 11 of them have at least one Quad 3 or Quad 4 loss. Duke just one outside of Quad 1 and none lower than Quad 2.
At an ACC-leading No. 22 in the NET and No. 32 in KenPom, Duke has a safe spot in the tournament field barring a season-ending losing streak.
The seed projections
The nation’s various bracket projectors all have Duke included in their fields of 68. Bracket Matrix’s list of 107 projections shows Duke’s average projected seed at 7.09, ranging from 5-9.
The only ACC teams with better average projected seeds are Virginia (4.37) and Miami (5.02).
Bart Torvik’s analytics projection looks at what he thinks each team’s resume will be when the bracket is released on March 12, not where they stand now.
His T-Ranketology assigns Duke a No. 7 seed, along with Michigan State, Iowa State and Arkansas. The system projects Duke to lose Saturday night at UNC and enter the ACC tournament at 22-9.
The schedule
Duke’s final regular-season game is a road game at rival North Carolina before the league convenes in Greensboro for the ACC tournament next week.
At North Carolina
March 4, 6:30 p.m.
The Tar Heels (19-11, 11-8) are projected for lower ACC and NCAA tournament seeds than Duke at this point. UNC is No. 45 in the NET, so this will be a Quad 1 game for the Blue Devils. After winning, 77-55, at Syracuse on Feb. 18, Duke winning at UNC would further boost its road record in addition to offering a chance for another Quad 1 win.
This story was originally published March 2, 2023 at 7:00 AM with the headline "Duke basketball tops the ACC in multiple analytics metrics, despite early-season losses."