Could Mike Elko take Duke football to bowl game this season? Here’s what path looks like
Five wins in the last two seasons combined and no bowl games over the last three seasons are two reasons why Mike Elko is Duke’s coach and David Cutcliffe is not.
The move was made aiming to get back to where Duke was during the last decade, when Cutcliffe led the Blue Devils to six bowl games in seven seasons from 2012-18.
Lo and behold, Elko has Duke (4-3) two-thirds of the way to bowl eligibility seven games into his first head coaching job.
A year ago, Duke started 3-1 before losing all eight of its ACC games.
However, the outlook is better this season. ESPN’s Football Power Index places Duke’s chances of achieving bowl eligibility at 75.6%. The Pro Football Focus ratings have the Blue Devils chances at 63% while projecting a six-win season.
The weak seasons turned in so far by two of the ACC teams remaining on Duke’s schedule give the Blue Devils hope. Virginia Tech (3.7%) and Boston College (2.1%) have worse bowl chances per ESPN’s FPI.
PFF projects the Hokies (2-5, 1-3 ACC), who play at Duke on Nov. 12, to finish with four wins. Boston College (2-4, 1-3), which hosts Duke on Nov. 4, is also projected to win four games, per PFF.com.
With that in mind, here’s a look at the rest of Duke’s schedule with a look at how the opponents have performed thus far and the likelihood the Blue Devils could win.
OCT. 22, AT MIAMI
Record: 3-3, 1-1 ACC
So far: New coach Mario Cristobal re-energized the Hurricanes program this offseason, spawning plenty of “The U is Back” takes. A 17-9 loss at Texas A&M dampened that and an embarrassing 45-31 loss to Middle Tennessee squashed it. Still, Miami has a solid quarterback in Tyler Van Dyke, who has improved the last two weeks after a rough start. He threw for 496 yards against UNC and 351 against Virginia Tech.
Duke success meter: Tough road game for the Blue Devils here. Duke won at Miami in 2018 to clinch bowl eligibility that season, so there are good vibes for the Blue Devils. Still, Miami is a nine-point favorite so it would take an upset for Duke.
NOV. 4, AT BOSTON COLLEGE
Record: 2-4, 1-3 ACC
So far: The Eagles stumbled out of the gate this season, losing 22-21 at home to Rutgers before dropping a 27-10 game at Virginia Tech. Boston College averages just 20 points per game while allowing 29 points per game. Both are in the bottom four of the ACC. Quarterback Phil Jurkovec has thrown six interceptions in six games, a major reason while the Eagles have turned it over 10 times this season. Rough season for the Eagles thus far.
Duke success meter: If Duke is to make a bowl, the Blue Devils need to win this game. Tougher games — Pitt and Wake Forest — lie ahead in November. This one is winnable.
NOV. 12, VIRGINIA TECH
Record: 2-5, 1-3 ACC
So far: Year one of the Brent Pry coaching era is not going well for the Hokies. It started with a 20-17 loss at Old Dominion in the season-opener. The offense, under quarterback Grant Wells, who has thrown an ACC-worst seven interceptions, has produced just 19.1 points per game. Virginia Tech’s 3.16 rushing yards per carry is next to last in the ACC.
Duke success meter: Looking strong. Virginia Tech is currently on a four-game losing streak and is headed for a losing season. Hokies figure to be playing out the string, some of their players with an eye on the transfer portal, when they arrive at Wallace Wade Stadium.
NOV. 19, AT PITTSBURGH
Record: 4-2, 1-1
So far: The reigning ACC champion Panthers still have a chance to repeat as Coastal Division champions (they play at North Carolina on Oct. 29). Running back Israel Abanikanda is having an All-ACC season, leading the league in rushing yards per game (138) and rushing touchdowns (12). On defense, the 26.2 points per game Pitt has allowed puts it 11th in the ACC.
Duke success meter: Not great. Duke hasn’t defeated Pittsburgh since 2014, going 1-7 against the Panthers in ACC play. Pitt has mostly pushed Duke around. The Blue Devils need to have six wins in hand before this game.
NOV. 26, WAKE FOREST
Record: 5-1, 1-1 ACC
So far: The Demon Deacons missed a chance to win the Atlantic Division again when they lost at home in overtime to Clemson. But don’t discount how good Dave Clawson’s team is playing. Sam Hartman is a steady force at quarterback with plenty of weapons at wide receiver in A.T. Perry, Donavon Greene and Jahmal Banks. Wake averages 41.2 points per game. The defense is not as strong, allowing 384 yards per game (11th in ACC).
Duke success meter: Can’t see a win coming from this one. Wake owns a three-game winning streak in the series with wins in four of the last five games. Elko is building Duke toward this level but the Blue Devils aren’t there yet.
This story was originally published September 20, 2022 at 6:15 AM with the headline "Could Mike Elko take Duke football to bowl game this season? Here’s what path looks like."