3 key matchups to watch as UNC and Duke battle in ACC Coastal Division rivalry showdown
As evidenced by North Carolina’s lopsided advantage in the overall series record, the Tar Heels routinely have massive advantages over Duke on the football field.
Blowout wins the last two seasons, by 38-7 and 56-24 scores, give UNC a 63-40-4 edge in the series that began in 1888.
The Tar Heels have won the last three games, which actually allowed them to pull even with Duke over the last 10 meetings. So, despite the last two seasons, it’s not been all bad for the Blue Devils thanks to their success when Everett Withers and Larry Fedora coached the Tar Heels.
This season’s matchup will be the first Saturday night game between the rivals at Wallace Wade Stadium since 2012. They played Thursday night games in 2014 and 2016 in Durham, splitting those two.
All that said, when they meet Saturday at 8 p.m. on ACC Network, here are three areas of the game to watch closely as they figured to play a big role in determining if the Blue Devils will pull an upset or UNC will continue its dominance.
UNC pass rush vs. Duke protection
Riley Leonard’s play at quarterback is a big reason why Duke (4-2, 1-1 ACC) already has more wins than it produced in either of the last two seasons. He completed 72% of his throws over the first five games.
But, in Saturday’s 23-20 overtime loss at Georgia Tech, Leonard was just 20 of 42 (48%) with 136 yards and an interception. It was easily his least productive game of the season.
The Yellow Jackets’ ability to pressure him played a major role. Georgia Tech sacked Leonard three times and pressured him on five other plays.
On plays where Leonard was pressured, he completed just 3 of 14 passes, according to Pro Football Focus analytics. Georgia Tech blitzed on 24 of the 49 plays where Leonard dropped back to pass. He completed 9 of 19 (47%) on those plays.
So, Leonard struggled when the heat was turned up.
The Tar Heels (5-1, 2-0) haven’t been great at getting to the quarterback this season. UNC’s 11 sacks in six games are 12th among the ACC’s 14 teams.
Linebacker Power Echols has been UNC’s most effective pass rusher, recording two sacks, four hits and three quarterback hurries. He wins 50% of his encounters against pass blockers.
Defensive ends Noah Taylor and Kaimon Rucker have three sacks each and their PFF pass rush scores are strong at 72.4 and 71.2. They’ve combined for 23 quarterback hurries.
But Taylor’s win rate against pass blockers is 15.8% while Rucker is at 14.7%, according to PFF.
Defensive tackle Myles Murphy’s win rate is 13.5% and he has just three quarterback hurries.
Duke’s protection was weaker against Georgia Tech because left guard Maurice McIntyre was injured in the first quarter. Duke was also without running back Jaylen Coleman, who is a solid pass blocker.
The Blue Devils will be without McIntyre (lower body injury) for the rest of the season, Duke coach Mike Elko said Monday. Coleman is among the Duke players injured at Georgia Tech who could be available for Saturday’s rivalry game, Elko said.
Duke rush defense vs. UNC running game
This projects as an even battle, one of the swing areas that could turn the game.
UNC has 12 rushing touchdowns and its 4.95 yards per carry rates No. 3 in the ACC.
Duke, meanwhile, allows 4.07 yards per carry (tied for ninth in the ACC).
UNC’s leading rusher, freshman Omarion Hampton, has two 100-yard rushing games but they came against Florida A&M and Georgia State. He gained only 36 yards on 15 attempts at Miami on Saturday.
Caleb Hood started slowly this season but gained 74 yards on 13 carries at Miami, with 46 of those yards coming after contact.
Hood’s per-carry average is an impressive 6.4 yards for the season, while Hampton and quarterback Drake Maye average 4.6 yards per carry.
But UNC’s run blocking grade on PFF is a mediocre 50.2. Duke’s defensive grade against the run is much better — 72.1.
The grades for UNC’s linemen aren’t great — tackle Asim Richards (57.4), center Corey Gaynor (57.1), tackle Spencer Rolland (55.9), guard William Barnes (54.7), guard Ed Montilus (49.3).
On Duke’s side, defensive tackle Ja’Mion Franklin (81.2) is exceptional against the run. Other Blue Devils who have played 100 snaps against running plays and rate about 70 are safeties Darius Joiner (74.8) and Jaylen Stinson (73.7), cornerback Datrone Young (71) and linebacker Shaka Heyward (70.4).
One other thing to watch for is Duke’s tackling. The Blue Devils’ tackling grade, on all plays, is a pedestrian 49.2. Of Duke’s 83 missed tackles, 53 have come on running plays.
Duke punt return vs. UNC punt coverage
Hidden yardage in the kicking game is always an area that can help an underdog pull an upset.
Given how Duke’s Sahmir Hagans performed Saturday at Georgia Tech, with an 81-yard punt return for a touchdown and a 40-yard return, the Blue Devils could be strong here.
Or, perhaps not.
While Duke and UNC are two of the six ACC teams not to allow a punt return of 20 yards or more this season, Georgia Tech has allowed an ACC-worst five.
So it could be Hagans took advantage of porous Yellow Jackets coverage.
On the other hand, Duke leads the ACC with four punt returns of 20 yards or more with Hagans and Jalon Calhoun contributing. Calhoun was injured after a 19-yard return early against Georgia Tech, which led to Hagans’ performance.
This story was originally published October 12, 2022 at 5:10 AM with the headline "3 key matchups to watch as UNC and Duke battle in ACC Coastal Division rivalry showdown."