Phil Berger is playing poker in his primary. A new poll says it’s not working. | Opinion
When people talk about politics, they often reach for a chess analogy. A campaign is a game of strategy and gambits, and the best player is the one who can see three moves ahead.
But North Carolina primaries, especially the ones that turn personal, usually play more like poker. There is strategy, sure, but the game is more about posture and pressure. It is about making the other guy fold, either with a strong hand or a bluff.
Sooner or later, though, everyone has to show their cards. That’s what is happening right now in the primary matchup between Sen. Phil Berger and Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page.
A new poll from Opinion Diagnostics says Page leads Berger by 10 points in a head-to-head race. That’s a sizable lead, especially after Berger allies have spent roughly $2 million on advertising and after President Donald Trump endorsed Berger.
It helps explain why this contest has turned so ugly, so early. The nastier it gets, the more it reads like a player who tried to end the hand early, before voters got a clear look at what is actually on the table.
A toxic smear campaign
Berger has been Senate president pro tem since Republicans took over the General Assembly in 2011, and in the years since he has grown into the most powerful figure in North Carolina politics. He controls the Senate agenda and sits at the center of the donor and influence networks that make Republican government run.
For most of that era, Berger has not had to defend his own seat like this. He has certainly not had to defend it against a well-known sheriff with deep local roots and a base of his own. That changed when Page signaled he was running.
Berger and his allies responded the way a power structure often responds when it feels a real threat: they tried to end the race before it began. By the time candidate filing opened on Dec. 1, Berger-aligned outside groups were already on television with attacks aimed at Page, well ahead of the normal rhythm of a state Senate race.
They have been remarkably explicit about the intent. The goal is not simply to beat Sam Page. It is to ruin him. A pro-Berger group told reporters it planned to spend millions and said, “By the time we’re done, there shouldn’t be a Republican in that district who will consider voting for” Page.
I’ll call it what it is, a smear. It is ugly. And coming from the most powerful Republican in North Carolina, it is beneath the office.
Calling the bluff
The early barrage was meant to make Page fold before the real dealing started. He did not. Page has filed to run for the state Senate, and the new poll released this week suggests that voters have not caved either.
Maybe the poll is off. But it fits with what the public can already see. If Berger were cruising, he would not need scorched-earth tactics in November and December.
For years, Berger’s brand has not simply been “conservative.” It has been control, too. He is the leader who keeps the Senate caucus in line, raises the money, brokers the deals, and quietly determines what lives and what dies.
That ecosystem still exists. It just looks less stable than it did even a year ago.
North Carolina remains stuck in a budget deadlock, with House and Senate Republicans split over fiscal priorities. House Speaker Destin Hall and his lieutenants have been more openly hostile to Berger and the Senate than at any time in recent memory.
Berger has also faced unusually public blowback from Republican activists, including a formal push for a “party disloyalty” charge. Whatever you think of the people driving it, the significance is that they are willing to pick that fight in the open. People do not test the king when they still believe the king can ruin them.
We have seen versions of this before, in eras when state politics was driven less by ideology than by court dynamics. Different names, different parties, same underlying truth: intimidation works until it does not. Once defiance becomes contagious, the knives come out fast.
What Republicans should demand instead
If Berger wants to win, he should make the case the old-fashioned way, on his record and vision. He has certainly done a lot of good for the state of North Carolina.
Machiavelli warned that fear can be useful, but hatred is fatal. That is the line Berger is flirting with when his side campaigns as if humiliation is the point. It does not strengthen a coalition. It teaches people to dream about life after you. Republican voters should reject the idea that the only way to resolve a primary is to destroy the other guy’s name.
In poker, you can do everything right, read the table, play the odds, and still lose. When the cards turn, the only question is what kind of party you are left with.
Contributing columnist Andrew Dunn is the publisher of the Longleaf Politics newsletter, which offers thoughtful analysis of North Carolina politics and policy from a conservative perspective. He can be reached at andrew@longleafpol.com.
This story was originally published December 17, 2025 at 1:06 PM with the headline "Phil Berger is playing poker in his primary. A new poll says it’s not working. | Opinion."