Which NC Republican is most likely to win Trump’s Senate sweepstakes? | Opinion

The last Senate primary in North Carolina didn’t end on Election Day. It ended the moment Donald Trump took the stage in Greenville and called Ted Budd “your next senator.”

Former Gov. Pat McCrory had been the early favorite as the kind of name voters know even if they’re not paying attention. Former Congressman Mark Walker had a ready-built base and an early start. But none of that mattered once Trump spoke. Budd walked away with the nomination and the seat. The rest never really had a chance.

That same dynamic is about to play out again. With sitting U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis’s decision not to run for re-election, North Carolina is set for a wide-open Republican primary that will, once again, be shaped by one man.

Trump’s endorsement is the most valuable asset in North Carolina Republican politics. It’s not just a thumbs-up. It’s a signal to donors, party operatives and voters about who to rally around. And if he makes it early again — like he did for Budd, and for Tillis in 2020 — it will clear the field.

It’s easy to forget how sudden that last endorsement was. Budd didn’t even know it was coming until just before Trump’s speech. McCrory, standing in the same building, instantly became an outsider in a party he once helped shape. Walker was relegated to spectator. Trump didn’t just pick a candidate, he rewrote the race.

And he’ll do it again. Because that’s how Trump operates.

He’s not looking for the most traditionally conservative candidate, or the one with the best resume. He’s looking for loyalty first, electability second. Someone who won’t embarrass him, lose a winnable race or try to outshine him. That’s the entire formula.

So let’s run through the names being floated.

Lara Trump has the name, voter enthusiasm and, of course, loyalty. Her presidential father-in-law has described Lara Trump as his “first choice” for the seat, and she’s widely popular in her home state of North Carolina — born in Wilmington and a graduate of N.C. State.

But I’m not convinced this is the time Lara Trump actually runs. She’s been mentioned as a Senate possibility in multiple cycles across multiple states, most recently passing on an appointment to Florida’s seat vacated by new-Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

To run in North Carolina, she’d need to move her family from Florida back here and likely give up her lucrative job hosting a Fox News program. She’d be the favorite to win the general election, but not a shoo-in. Why take the risk?

That brings us to RNC chairman Michael Whatley, who has been a loyal foot soldier since 2016 and probably deserves the endorsement. But Trump loyalty only runs one way. Whatley carries real baggage with the base — too many backroom moves, not enough charisma. Trump may thank him privately, but that’s not the same as an endorsement. Ask Mark Walker.

Then there’s the freshman class of congressmen, most notably Addison McDowell, Brad Knott and Pat Harrigan. Each could plausibly land in the mix someday. But it won’t be this year. Trump doesn’t reward potential, he rewards results. None of them have shown they can win a tough statewide fight.

Dan Bishop, now working in the Trump administration, feels too risky. Trump wants a winner, not a lightning rod, and Bishop’s loss in the attorney general race last year precludes him getting picked.

So who’s left? I think the endorsement will go to U.S. Rep. Richard Hudson.

He’s not flashy, but he’s exactly the kind of candidate Trump is likely to back. He’s won in a variety of districts. He raises serious money. He chairs the National Republican Congressional Committee, meaning he’s plugged into the national party and knows how to play the game. He’s disciplined.

And most importantly, he looks and acts the part.

I reached out to Hudson’s office, and they declined to comment. In a statement posted to X, Hudson says he’s “grateful” for the people who’ve encouraged him to run, but that his “focus remains on representing the people of the 9th District.”

You could read that as taking himself out of contention, as some have, but I don’t see it that way at all. It’s very easy to pivot from that position to, “The president has asked me to run, and I’m honored to serve.”

Hudson doesn’t need to do much to chase Trump’s endorsement because he already fits the mold. He’s loyal, electable and unlikely to make trouble. For Trump, that’s the ideal combination.

So don’t be surprised when this primary ends early again.

Trump will pick his guy. The rest will fall in line. And Richard Hudson will be standing where Ted Budd stood four years ago — next to Trump, already halfway to the Senate.

This story was originally published July 3, 2025 at 9:54 AM with the headline "Which NC Republican is most likely to win Trump’s Senate sweepstakes? | Opinion."