NC farmers, hit by Trump’s China tariffs, are ‘still trusting’ him | Opinion

President Trump’s trade war with China will be felt across the economy, but in North Carolina the most direct hit may be on soybean farmers.

Soybeans are North Carolina’s largest crop by acreage – 1.7 million acres – and China is by far the biggest customer for soybeans, a prime source of animal feed and oil.

“Even a small hit from a trade war is going to hurt, said Jeffrey Dorfman, a professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics at North Carolina State University. “It’s coming at a bad time, prices are dropping and production costs are still way up.”

That Trump has effectively closed the door on a major market would seem to be something that would upset soybean farmers, especially since many of them voted for him and this is the second time his China tariffs have cost them.

In 2017, Trump’s tariffs on China led to a drop in sales and pushed China to buy more soybeans from Brazil, a loss of market share that has not been fully recovered. But Trump, then facing reelection amid tariff-related crop losses, softened the blow by providing farmers $23 billion in assistance.

There are more than 30,000 farms in North Carolina, but 90 percent of row crops are produced by only 4,000 farms, Dorfman said.

North Carolina ranks 17th nationally in soybean production, though it is the largest producer on the East Coast. In 2018-19, soybean and cotton farmers received more than $200 million in compensation for crop losses, Dorfman said.

Soybean farmers hope the same subsidy for the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will come through if the tarde war with China produced losses.

“The general reaction is there will be a similar program this time around,” said Charles Hall, executive director of the North Carolina Soybean Growers Association. “It’s not unusual in the event of an economic downturn for the USDA to make farmers whole.”

This trade war is arbitrary and sparked by Trump himself, but the president appears to be holding on to those soybean farmers who support him.

The top soybean producing-counties in North Carolina are Robeson, Beaufort, Pitt, Sampson, Pasquotank, Wayne, Duplin and Johnston. All but Pitt went for Trump in 2024.

Dorfman, who regularly visits with soybean growers, said, “I’ve been impressed and surprised but they are being pretty calm about it. Farmers are still trusting President Trump.”

It may be a misplaced faith. Despite his feints about seeking a third term, Trump is a lame duck. The farming vote he needed in its first term, he doesn’t need now. Farmers would not be the first to be stiffed by Trump.

Meanwhile, it’s clear that Trump’s rash imposition of high tariffs on China, and China’s aggressive tax on U.S. imports in response, poses a threat to soybean farmers.

“For 10 years we’ve been working with other countries, places like Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines, so there are other markets, but you can’t develop a market the size of China overnight,” Hall said.

Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association, expressed concern in an interview with National Public Radio.

“Our grave concern is we could permanently lose another big chunk of our export market that we are dependent on for our production,” he said. “The U.S. farm economy is in a tough spot, and we just don’t have any room for error right now.”

The error is an unforced one by Trump. But ultimately it’s an error by those who, despite the clear warnings of Trump’s first term, voted to put him back to the White House.

This story was originally published April 22, 2025 at 9:37 AM with the headline "NC farmers, hit by Trump’s China tariffs, are ‘still trusting’ him | Opinion."