Republicans called their abortion ban ‘mainstream.’ North Carolinians disagree. | Opinion
When Republicans introduced a ban on most abortions in North Carolina after 12 weeks of pregnancy, they insisted it was a mainstream proposal.
They called it “common-sense” and “reasonable” and argued that it was “in line with what the majority of North Carolinians believe.”
But polling released this week confirms that was just some old-fashioned political gaslighting.
A new poll from Elon University shows that the supposedly “mainstream” abortion ban has not been met with mainstream support after all. The poll found that 45% of voters strongly or somewhat oppose recent changes to North Carolina’s abortion laws, while only 23% support them.
When asked specifically about reducing the gestational limit from 20 weeks to 12 weeks, support for the bill increased to 36%, but 45% of voters remained opposed. The remaining voters said they neither support nor oppose the changes.
Unsurprisingly, Democrats were more likely to oppose the changes, while Republicans were more likely to support them. But among those who identified as neither Democrat nor Republican, there was nearly twice as much opposition as there was support. In fact, abortion is a nuanced issue even within the Republican Party — 29% of GOP voters strongly or somewhat oppose the changes, according to the Elon poll.
There was more opposition than support for a 12-week ban across nearly all demographics — race, income level, age and educational attainment. Support and opposition among men, however, was equal.
The results of this poll shouldn’t be surprising — they’re consistent with other public opinion polls on abortion since Roe v. Wade was overturned last year. A poll commissioned last month by the progressive organization Carolina Forward found that a majority of voters oppose the bill, and that they would be more likely to oppose a state legislative candidate who voted for it. A Meredith Poll released in February found that more than half of respondents wanted to keep North Carolina’s 20-week law or even expand it further.
Though North Carolina lawmakers publicly insisted their proposal would be popular, their messaging tactics suggested they may have privately feared backlash. They spent less than 48 hours publicly debating the 46-page bill before putting it up for a vote and fiercely objected to any characterization of it as an “abortion ban.”
“A ban is when you can’t do something,” one of the bill’s sponsors told The Washington Post. “‘Ban’ is a really harsh word.”
Even the choice to ban abortion at 12 weeks was a conscious one. After months of internal deliberations, Republicans ultimately landed on a first trimester ban instead of something stricter, largely to avoid incurring political consequences.
But the results of the poll suggest that voters may be less willing to compromise on abortion than Republicans had hoped. North Carolina’s 12-week law is the most permissive state abortion ban to pass in a post-Roe world, and many saw it as a way to tighten existing restrictions without alienating voters who would be staunchly opposed to a total or near-total ban.
But this poll, at least, suggests that when voters say they want abortion laws to stay the same, they mean it. That could be worrisome for Republicans going forward, who have quickly learned that overturning Roe was not a popular decision.
Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, the Republican frontrunner for governor in 2024, has told media that he’s “not interested in talking about” the issue anymore, despite it being a common topic in his past speeches and sermons. North Carolina Democrats are preparing to campaign hard on the issue in 2024, with state party chair Anderson Clayton recently telling The News & Observer that the party has already seen a big fundraising boost.
Will a 12-week abortion ban backfire on Republicans at the ballot box? It’s too soon to tell, and it will largely depend on which party wins the messaging war between now and 2024. But a policy supported by only a third of North Carolinians is simply not a mainstream policy, and that’s something that the party will likely have to answer for.
This story was originally published June 15, 2023 at 12:19 PM with the headline "Republicans called their abortion ban ‘mainstream.’ North Carolinians disagree. | Opinion."
