Everyone wants an NC budget passed. The governor really needs one.

“As long as the leaders are talking, anything is possible.”

That’s what former House Speaker Harold Brubaker said about the prospect of a bipartisan compromise on this year’s state budget. And Brubaker would know – the Republican struck budget deals with Democratic Senate Leader Marc Basnight and Democratic Governor Jim Hunt in 1995 and 1997. That was the last time a divided state government came together to pass a budget.

But that was decades ago, when bipartisanship and compromise were political assets, not liabilities.

Even though our state’s leaders are indeed talking, and even though they’ve hinted at compromise, is there any reason to believe Roy Cooper, Phil Berger and Tim Moore can find a bipartisan breakthrough after three years of gridlock?

I believe a grand bargain is possible in 2021 and might even be likely. Because for the first time, Governor Cooper really needs a budget.

Of course, everyone wants a budget this year. We’ve endured 18 months of COVID, relying on a patchwork of one-off spending bills and federal relief funds. Ironically, because of the state’s recent failure to adopt a comprehensive budget, plus one-time federal relief funds and a more robust recovery than economists projected, the state’s coffers are overflowing. The surplus stands between $8 billion and $12 billion.

As Cooper put it earlier this year, expressing openness to a bipartisan budget: “…we have enough money to pass my entire budget plus all those tax breaks with more money still remaining.”

There’s the obvious reason Cooper needs a spending plan: the state hasn’t had a comprehensive budget, or the things like teacher pay raises that come with it, since legislative Republicans overrode his 2018 budget veto.

But Cooper, who plays a shrewd political long game and is as image-conscious and cautious as any statewide elected official of his generation, needs a budget deal for personal reasons too. Cooper has accomplished little, if any, of his agenda – no major teacher pay raises, no Medicaid expansion, no bond. And his gubernatorial legacy, along with any hope of a national political future, may well rest on his ability to hammer out a deal.

Cooper made a calculation when he took office. Knowing Republicans, with legislative supermajorities, had the votes to beat him during his first two years, Cooper largely refused to compromise. He took his losses, vilified the legislature, raised piles of political money, and helped Democrats break the supermajorities in 2018.

Having succeeded on all fronts, Cooper doubled down in his second two years. He used his veto to force government stalemate, blocking most Republican priorities, while raising political money and working to flip the legislature in 2020. His bet was simple: winning Democratic majorities in 2020 would allow Cooper to not only undo a decade of conservative reforms, but also advance a bold, liberal agenda. If successful, the plan would have thrust Cooper into the national spotlight as the country’s only popular progressive Southern governor.

Alas, voters had other plans, expanding Republicans’ majorities, and Cooper lost his big bet.

Now, with little to show from his first term, Cooper finds himself buffeted not just by the national headwinds that historically make mid-term elections difficult for the president’s party, but a gale of bad news for Democrats heading into 2022: the Afghanistan debacle, the Delta variant, inflation, a stalled recovery, and precipitous decline in President Biden’s job approval. An unforgiving electoral environment for Democrats, combined with redistricting, will give Republicans a chance to regain veto-proof supermajorities. That would relegate Cooper to lame duck status after the 2022 election and close the door on any big-ticket accomplishments to bolster his resume for a much-rumored spot on a national ticket.

So this might be the last time Cooper brings leverage to the negotiating table – the last time he can pivot, cut a deal and salvage some of his agenda. And the governor’s history of calculated political decisions indicates he might just take advantage of it.

This story was originally published September 13, 2021 at 9:06 AM with the headline "Everyone wants an NC budget passed. The governor really needs one.."