All of North Carolina is still in severe drought. When could we see rain?
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- About 95% of North Carolina is experiencing severe and extreme drought.
- More than 60 water systems throughout the state have some water restrictions.
- Parts of the state could see half an inch to an inch of rain over the next seven days.
The corn sprouting in Chowan County is irrigated with water pulled from where the Roanoke River spills into the Albemarle Sound, but the water is too salty from a lack of rain refilling river beds upstream.
In Buncombe County, plants are wilting even in the shade. Plants transplanted into a Durham County yard need more attention and water than normal.
The farmer in Hope County usually makes the first cut of hay in May, but it’s been so dry the crops haven’t grown enough to be worth it.
These are real observations sent to state and federal weather officials as about 95% of North Carolina is experiencing severe and extreme drought. More than 60 water systems throughout the state have mandatory or voluntary water restrictions related to the drought.
Orange County is now considered to be in extreme drought as of Thursday, April 23, joining other Triangle counties like Wake and Durham in the category from last week, which now makes up more than 38 percent of the state.
Mecklenburg County, other counties near the Charlotte metro and some parts of Western North Carolina moved into extreme drought in late March and early April.
When will North Carolina get rain?
Parts of the state could see up to half an inch to an inch of rain over the next seven days with the best chances on Sunday, April 26, and Tuesday, April 28, said Barrett Smith, senior service hydrologist at the National Weather Service’s Raleigh office.
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center’s 8-to-14-day outlook, which goes into the first week of May, is trending toward above-normal precipitation.
“Good that we’re going to get some precipitation,” Smith said. “Still a lot of uncertainty as to how much we will get in that time frame.”
But forecasts for May have been mixed, said Phil Badgett, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Raleigh office. The “recent historically bad drought lowered soil moisture levels,” he said.
“In other words, droughts can perpetuate themselves,” said Badgett in a Friday, April 17 briefing. “More soil moisture may lead to more rainfall in the warm season. Dry soils may very well lead to less rainfall.”
The three-month outlook for May through July is also projecting an above-normal precipitation for the eastern half of the state.
But the steady beat of spring showers differs from the sporadic thunderstorms that crash above the state on muggy summer afternoon.
“The next 30 days are really critical for us in terms of how much rainfall we get and how it impacts the drought,” Smith said. “As we head towards June, July and August, we become much more dependent on afternoon showers and thunderstorms a lot of the times. That may help an individual community, farm, city, reservoir, but not the entire state a lot of times.”
When did North Carolina’s drought start?
The state’s drought is more than six months in the making.
“It had been pretty wet through the summer, and then once we got to mid-August, really that faucet stopped,” said Corey Davis, assistant state climatologist at the North Carolina State Climate Office.
There was not enough rain from tropical storms or hurricanes, and winter was dryer than normal, he said. Even when some parts of the state saw several inches of snow in February it didn’t translate into liquid inches.
“Since the middle of March, we have been in an almost summer like weather pattern,” Davis said. “We have had high pressure either just offshore or right over the Carolinas. That has put us in this sort of heat dome that we usually expect to see in June or July and not in April.”
How bad could NC’s drought get?
The benchmark for bad droughts in the state is a relatively recent example: 2007 was the worst drought in state history.
“This year, we do have some record deficits, but since it occurred over the wintertime, conditions and impacts so far have been pretty low, which is good news,” said Klaus Albertin, a water resources engineer and chair of the North Carolina Drought Management Advisory Council. “Bad news is we’ve got the whole summer to look forward to. So if we don’t start getting rainfall, we’re going to quickly get into the same sort of impacts we saw back in 2007.”
In 2007, the rain trickled off in May with a very dry and very hot summer that caused significant drought impacts, including in reservoirs; Charlotte was 17 inches below their average rainfall and Raleigh was 13 inches below normal.
“I’ll cut to the chase here and say the overall deficits are pretty similar,” Davis said. “Charlotte right now is a little over 15 inches below normal, but we’re seeing places like Raleigh that have already passed their deficit from the 2007 drought.”
While the rain deficits are similar, the impacts are not.
“The evaporation rates are lower because it’s cooler,” he said. “Water demands are lower because people aren’t irrigating or washing their cars.”
Falls Lake, the primary source of drinking water for Raleigh and several eastern Wake County towns, is 3 feet below its target levels, with sandy edges creeping up along the shore.
“Frankly, this is nothing compared to what we saw in 2007,” Davis said. “At the peak of that drought, Falls Lake was almost nine feet below its target level. It was more than six feet lower than where it sat now, and at that point, even across the main channel of a lake, there was really just a trickle of water coming through.”
How much rain do NC cities need to make up?
Most of North Carolina is 6 inches below its average rainfalls with some areas seeing much larger gaps.
The North Carolina State Climate Office tracks the precipitation deficit. Here are how far below the average rainfall totals are for some cities from August 2025 to Tuesday, April 21:
- Asheville: 14.36 inches
- Boone: 17.97 inches
- Charlotte: 15.24 inches
- Elizabeth City: 9.05 inches
- Fayetteville: 13.2 inches
- Greensboro: 13.12 inches
- Greenville: 15.21 inches
- Murphy: 13.96 inches
- Raleigh: 16.47 inches
- Wilmington: 16.77 inches
Will hurricane season help with NC’s drought?
The National Hurricane Center issues its hurricane forecast in mid-May, just two weeks before the start of hurricane season.
Private companies and universities have begun to release their forecasts with most showing a “near normal to below normal” hurricane season this year, Smith said.
After two La Niña winters, forecasts are strongly suggesting an El Niño, a climate pattern that brings warmer-than-average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, to form this year.
That could dampen the effects of this year’s hurricane season, but an El Niño could bring a wetter fall and winter, Smith said.
How can you see NC’s drought map?
The U.S. Drought Monitor shows the location and intensity of drought across the country. A new map is posted every Thursday at ncdrought.org, which includes a map archive.
People who want to drill down into the data can visit drought.gov/states/north-carolina for an interactive map.
This story was originally published April 24, 2026 at 8:42 AM with the headline "All of North Carolina is still in severe drought. When could we see rain?."
