How many hurricanes will NC get this season? What to expect and how to prepare
Researchers at North Carolina State University predict six to eight hurricanes over the warm-weather months in our region, with the possibility of two or three major hurricanes.
Between 11 and 15 named storms are predicted, according to a recently published report.
“Researchers are expecting near normal, even below-normal, activity than what we’ve seen the past several years,” Barrett Smith, a senior service hydrologist at Raleigh’s National Weather Service, told The News & Observer.
“When we had Hurricanes Matthew and Florence, we were in a three- to four-year period of above normal hurricane activity.”
Here’s what to know about our area’s upcoming hurricane season:
When is NC’s 2023 hurricane season?
June 1 to Nov. 30.
The season occasionally begins in May, though there’s no conversation of an earlier start this year, Smith said.
When is hurricane season at its peak?
Sept. 10.
The season’s peak begins mid-September and continues through the end of the season (Nov. 30).
This doesn’t mean the strongest hurricanes will fall between mid-September and November, Smith said. Rather, you are likely to see any hurricane in this time period, regardless of the strength.
So when will NC’s major hurricanes hit in 2023?
That’s currently unclear.
“There’s no prediction right now as to when those stronger hurricanes will be,” Smith said.
“If you look at it in terms of when most hurricanes have been, by pure numbers, the stronger hurricanes are in that [September to November] time frame, but they can be any time during the season.”
In mid-May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will put out an official report detailing predictions for the upcoming hurricane season, he said.
Why is NC expecting a below-normal hurricane season?
Within the past few weeks, the NOAA Climate Office put out an El Niño watch, Smith said.
El Niño (which means “little boy” in Spanish) is a climate pattern that can suppress the development of hurricanes.
How to prepare for NC’s hurricane season
Emergency kits, flood insurance and local media are important needs during hurricane season.
Learn what to do before, during and after a storm hits by visiting newsobserver.com/news/weather-news.
This story was originally published April 18, 2023 at 2:08 PM with the headline "How many hurricanes will NC get this season? What to expect and how to prepare."
