Will a warm February mean a brutal spring or summer? NC climate expert weighs in.
It was an unseasonably warm February in the Triangle.
Just how warm, though?
As of last Wednesday, the average temperature recorded at RDU International Airport for the month of February was 52 degrees Fahrenheit — which is about eight degrees above normal, assistant state climatologist Corey Davis told The News & Observer in an email.
All told, we’re on pace to have the third-warmest February on record, dating back to 1887, Davis said last week.
With all of this record-breaking warm weather before spring even arrives — that won’t come, officially, until March 20 — you might be wondering: Will the coming months also be warmer than normal? And will that make for a brutally hot spring and summer?
To help you prepare for the approaching seasons, we asked Davis those questions and more.
Here’s what we learned.
Why was February so warm in NC?
Before we dive into the weather to come, let’s go over what has caused February in the Triangle to be so warm in the first place.
“The main large-scale pattern at play this month has been ridging in the upper-level jet stream over the Southeast U.S.,” Davis told The N&O. “The effects of that pattern have been like piling up blankets on top of us, then pointing a space heater at us, because it has put us under a thicker volume of air and then circulated warm air from the south into North Carolina.”
The pattern was especially pronounced last week, Davis said. On Thursday, the high temperature at RDU set an all-time record for the month of February, with temperatures more than 25 degrees above normal for this time of year.
If temperatures that far above normal were to happen in the summer, Davis said, it would essentially be referred to as a “heat dome” over our region.
“To put it another way, the temperatures this week are in line with what Miami usually has at this time of year,” Davis said. “Given the warm front that has just pushed in from the south, our current air mass has its roots over Florida, so the comparison to Miami is appropriate in more ways than one.”
Does warm February mean spring or summer will also be warm?
So, will this winter’s warm temperatures have any direct impact on the weather to come as we enter spring, then summer?
Not necessarily.
“Historically, there is almost no correlation between our wintertime temperatures and precipitation compared with what happens in the spring or summer,” Davis said.
That’s largely because the major patterns that tend to drive winter weather, El Niño and La Niña, typically “weaken during the spring and have less of an effect on us,” Davis said, adding that “it looks like that will be the case this year as well.”
What weather patterns could make spring or summer hot?
Still, Davis said, the weather patterns we’ve seen at the end of February do give us some things to watch for as we move deeper into the year.
‘Heat dome’ setups: If last week’s weather was “any preview, then those summertime ‘heat dome’ setups, with large-scale high pressure parked over one part of the country for days at a time, will be something to watch for,” Davis said. “Under that type of pattern, the end of June and beginning of July last year were particularly oppressive.”
El Niño pattern: Some forecasts are also predicting that an El Niño weather pattern will develop later in the year. Davis said “it’s a bit too early to have much confidence in those projections at the moment” — but such patterns are known to “bring in downright tropical weather systems to keep us warmer.”
Local weather whims: Still, Davis said, our weather in the spring and summer months is much more impacted by “the whims of more local patterns, like whether we get high pressure off our coastline that usually means hot and humid weather, or maybe some rare cooler days with high pressure to our north.”
Those local whims could also impact precipitation in addition to temperatures.
“Instead of relying on cold fronts or coastal low pressure systems for rainfall, our precipitation pattern will shift more toward pop-up shower and thunderstorm activity,” Davis said. “For that reason, it’s good news that we’ve been so wet over the past month, since we don’t see widespread rain as often once we reach the summer.”
Climatologist’s predictions for spring weather in NC
Given all of those patterns to watch, Davis pointed out two of his predictions for the weather we’ll see in the Triangle this spring and summer, in regard to temperatures and possible drought conditions.
First, we can likely expect a warm spring.
“Statewide, 10 of the past 13 springs have been warmer than normal, including our warmest spring on record in 2012,” Davis said. “With that prevailing trend in mind, it’s not a stretch to expect a warm spring this year as well. That’s also in line with the Climate Prediction Center’s three-month outlook, showing an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures across North Carolina and the Southeast US this spring.”
Davis said he’s also interested to see what the coming months being precipitation-wise, given that we’re currently “drought-free across the state,” despite the prevailing La Niña weather pattern this winter, which would typically bring dry conditions.
“The rainfall especially across the eastern part of the state since mid-January has helped a lot of those dry areas, and aside from a few deeper groundwater wells that are still recovering from last fall’s drought, conditions are in pretty decent shape at the moment,” Davis said.
“Over the past few years, spring has seen some abrupt changes in our precipitation patterns, going back and forth from wet to dry. If that happens this year, and if we’re warmer than normal overall, then areas that miss out on rainfall could see drought reappear without much warning.”
Farmers’ Almanac predictions for NC spring
We know some people also like to consult the Farmers’ Almanac’s predictions for upcoming weather patterns.
The Farmers’ Almanac is predicting “a wet and cool season for most places, with spring taking its sweet time to arrive.”
In the Southeast, specifically, the almanac’s spring predictions map appears to show “near normal spring temps” and “tons of showers,” with heavy thunderstorms in March.
While almanacs have been around for hundreds of years and are trusted by many, Davis said a three-year study by the State Climate office found their forecasts to be hit or miss.
“They’re correct only about half of the time,” Davis previously told The N&O. “That sounds fairly impressive, but remember that if you’re only trying to predict whether our weather will be warm or cool, or wet or dry, then you’d expect the same level of accuracy by flipping a coin.”
This story was originally published February 28, 2023 at 6:45 AM with the headline "Will a warm February mean a brutal spring or summer? NC climate expert weighs in.."
