COVID-19 surge pushes Mecklenburg County to ‘tipping point,’ new data show
A spike in coronavirus cases has propelled Mecklenburg County to the No. 3 spot statewide in terms of risk, according to new data released by Harvard University.
University experts released a tool this week that charts coronavirus risks by state and county according to the number of new cases a day per 100,000 people over the last seven days — a metric better suited to comparing areas with widely varying population sizes.
By Thursday afternoon, Mecklenburg had climbed out of the orange and into the red zone.
The map released by Harvard Global Health Institute uses four colors to illustrate risk levels in every county: green, yellow, orange and red.
- Green: Less than one case a day per 100,000 people and containment is on track. Use contact tracing and testing to monitor.
- Yellow: One to nine cases a day per 100,000 people, indicating community spread and the need for rigorous testing and tracing.
- Orange: Ten to 24 cases a day per 100,000 people, showing “accelerated spread” and stay-at-home orders are advised.
Red: 25 or more cases a day per 100,000 people, meaning the county is at a “tipping point” and stay-at-home orders are necessary.
North Carolina — which averages 14 new cases a day per 100,000 people, according to Harvard’s data — is orange. But Mecklenburg has 28.3 cases a day per 100,000 people, pushing it squarely into red.
Hospitalizations in the state reached their second-highest single-day total on Thursday with 912 beds occupied, The News & Observer reported. North Carolina also experienced its largest daily increase in COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, according to the N.C. Department of Health and Human Services.
As of Thursday, the state has 68,142 COVID-19 cases and 1,391 deaths.
Mecklenburg County has the highest case count statewide with 11,803 cases — more than double the numbers reported in Wake and Durham counties.
Cases in Mecklenburg surpassed 10,000 last weekend, but officials worry the actual figure could be much larger, The Charlotte Observer reported.
Citing an estimate by the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, county Public Health Director Gibbie Harris told reporters June 26 that Mecklenburg’s case count could be closer to 94,000 — up to 10 times the reported figure.
On Thursday, Mecklenburg County added 269 new cases from the previous day.
At least 144 people have been hospitalized — a marked increase over the last two weeks — and the percentage of positive test results from Atrium Health and Novant Health is 11.2%, The Charlotte Observer reported.
“Mecklenburg County Public Health says this represents a 14-day ‘stable trend,’” according to the Observer.
According to Harvard’s data, only two other counties pose a higher coronavirus risk: Sampson with 28.8 cases a day per 100,000 people and Montgomery with 30 cases a day per 100,000 people.
Sampson has topped other lists as a COVID-19 hotspot due in part to outbreaks at a food processing plant, farms and long-term care facilities in the county, McClatchy News reported. Montgomery County has the second-highest per capita case rate in the state, according to N.C. DHHS data.
This story was originally published July 2, 2020 at 7:21 PM with the headline "COVID-19 surge pushes Mecklenburg County to ‘tipping point,’ new data show."
