NC breaks in-person early voting record, with Republicans slightly ahead of Democrats in turnout
With early voting now ended in North Carolina, the turnout looks different from 2020.
More voters cast their ballots during in-person early voting than ever before, far fewer voters used mail-in voting and registered Republicans, breaking with long-held trends, slightly outpaced Democrats in early voting turnout.
Neither of the two major parties had the biggest turnout during early voting in North Carolina. That distinction belongs to North Carolina’s most popular party identification: unaffiliated voters.
Some Republicans see reason for celebration in those numbers, including former President Donald Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance, who spent the weekend campaigning in North Carolina.
“Every single time, the Republicans vote late and the Democrats vote early,” Trump said at a rally in Kinston on Sunday. “... The difference is that we’re actually starting from the front and it’s an amazing thing.”
However, the overall picture in the data may be more complicated than that.
Record early voting turnout
Over 4.2 million North Carolinians cast their ballots during in-person early voting, easily beating 2020’s early voting record of 3.6 million.
Overall, nearly 57% of eligible voters have already voted, including those who cast mail-in ballots. Overall turnout in 2020 was about 75%.
Turnout was also up in the 25 counties in Western North Carolina affected by Hurricane Helene, which averaged about 2% higher turnout than the rest of the state.
“I am proud of all of our 100 county boards of elections and the thousands of election workers who are making this happen in their communities,” Karen Brinson Bell, executive director of the State Board of Elections, said in a news release Sunday. “And I am especially proud of the workers and voters of Western North Carolina. You are an inspiration to us all.”
Mail-in voting was much more popular in 2020, as many voters chose to stay home due to the COVID pandemic. At this point in 2020, over 900,000 civilian voters had cast their ballot by mail. Now, it’s slightly over 215,000.
Republican turnout outpaces Democrats
Throughout the 2020 election, Trump frequently claimed without evidence that early and mail-in voting would be used to cheat. This year, however, Republicans shifted their message, encouraging their base to “swamp the vote” by turning out early.
In North Carolina, it appears that Republicans listened.
Registered Republicans slightly outnumbered Democrats in early voting and mail-in totals, currently accounting for 33.3% of votes cast so far, compared to Democrats’ 32.4%.
At this point in 2020, Democrats were nearly six points ahead of Republicans in early voting turnout.
When Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Budd asked the crowd at Sunday’s Trump-Vance rally in Sanford if they’d voted early, almost all of the roughly 200 hands in the airplane hangar-turned-venue shot up.
RNC Chair Michael Whatley told the crowd he was impressed by their response, but warned them not to get too comfortable. “I saw how many of you folks already voted, and I have to say, that’s pretty darn awesome,” Whatley said. “But it’s not enough.”
Democrats have charged that Trump’s late-game blitz in North Carolina shows “they’re worried about their chances of winning in the Tar Heel state,” according to Tommy Mattocks, communications director for the N.C. Democratic Party.
“The models are showing that this race is breaking towards Democrats and we’re confident going into Tuesday night,” he said in a statement to The News & Observer.
Unaffiliated voters accounted for 33.6% of this year’s total early voting and mail-in turnout.
It’s unclear which way this group will swing, but other demographic data may provide hints.
Women, Black voters turn out
Women have cast significantly more votes than men, accounting for nearly 52% of total turnout compared to about 41% for men. As Democrats campaign heavily on abortion rights, some see this as a positive indicator for their chances.
On Saturday, several early voters at N.C. State’s Talley Student Union said they were supporting Vice President Kamala Harris because of her support for reproductive healthcare.
“It’s extremely important for people to vote,” Sharron Hinton, a woman voting with her daughter, said. “I never thought, at my age, we’d still be discussing some of the same issues.”
However, this year’s gender gap was replicated in almost the exact same numbers at this point in 2020, when Trump eventually carried the state by about 1.3 points.
Despite initially lagging in turnout, Black voters surged to the polls in the final days of early voting, eventually beating the in-person record set in 2020. However, total Black voter turnout is still down from this point in 2020, when taking mail-in ballots into account.
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Ballots will still be cast on Election Day
Voters can still cast their ballot on Election Day from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. at their local precinct.
In 2020, about 16% of North Carolinians voted on Election Day.
This story was originally published November 3, 2024 at 1:34 PM with the headline "NC breaks in-person early voting record, with Republicans slightly ahead of Democrats in turnout."
