With Tillis out, NC Senate race projected as a ‘toss-up.’ What experts anticipate.
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Tillis’ exit puts NC Senate seat in play, with 2026 race deemed a toss-up.
- Democrats eye Roy Cooper to unite party and court state’s unaffiliated voters.
- GOP primary could shift right; fundraising and Trump ties expected to dominate.
READ MORE
US Sen. Thom Tillis & NC Senate race
U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican who has represented North Carolina in Washington for a decade , announced June 29, 2025, he won’t seek reelection amid dissent with President Donald Trump. The Huntersville resident, a former speaker of the state House of Representatives, was first elected to the Senate in 2014. Here is coverage of the announcement and what it means for the 2026 Senate race.
Expand All
With Republican Sen. Thom Tillis announcing Sunday that he won’t run for reelection, many experts are considering how the political landscape in North Carolina may change — including possibly making way for a Democratic Senate win for the first time since 2008.
According to The Cook Political Report, a politics analysis organization that predicts congressional and gubernatorial races nationwide, the upcoming Senate race is now a “toss-up.”
North Carolina is now the top opportunity for Democrats to win a Republican-held seat in 2026, the group said.
But a lot depends on who each party nominates.
“Republicans could have to sort out a messy primary field to succeed Tillis that is sure to produce a nominee further to the right than the outgoing GOP senator,” the Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor wrote.
Tillis’ withdrawal from the 2026 race came as he made clear his opposition to Trump’s flagship bill, the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” Act. Tillis, who has served in the Senate since 2015, voted against the bill when it passed the Senate on Tuesday. He also gave a passionate speech on the Senate floor.
“What do I tell 663,000 people in two or three years when President Trump breaks his promise by pushing them off of Medicaid because the funding’s not there anymore?” Tillis said on the Senate floor. “It is inescapable that this bill in its current form will betray the promise that Donald J. Trump made in the Oval Office or in the Cabinet room.”
Susan Roberts, political science professor at Davidson College, said that she was surprised by Tillis’ announcement.
“It’s kind of the ‘June shock’ rather than the ‘October surprise,’” Roberts said in an interview with The News & Observer.
The Roy Cooper and Lara Trump factors
Tillis’ announcement leaves many anticipating what the 2026 Senate race will look like.
“I think it’s an opportunity for both Democrats and Republicans. The primaries are going to be very important,” Artemesia Stanberry, a political science professor at North Carolina Central University, told The N&O.
Some have been eyeing a possible bid for the seat by former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat who served as governor for two terms. Cooper received national attention last summer while being considered as a possible running mate by Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign.
The results of the 2024 election prove that, despite Tillis’ decade-long tenure, Democrats can win statewide elections, Stanberry said. Although North Carolina voted for President Donald Trump, Democrats won the seats of governor, attorney general and lieutenant governor.
Roberts said the Republican primary winner would be whoever outdoes the competition in their “fidelity” towards Trump.
One “unknown variable” in the race could be Lara Trump, President Donald Trump’s daughter-in-law, according to Roberts. Lara Trump, a Wilmington native, hosts the Fox News show “My View with Lara Trump.”
Both Roberts and Stanberry expect that the North Carolina Senate race could likely be the most expensive campaign nationwide in 2026.
Campaign budgets could soar because many of the potential candidates have fundraising experience, Roberts said.
“We won’t go out of the spotlight, for sure,” Roberts said.
Earning trust from unaffiliated voters
If Cooper runs, he’s likely to win the primary, Roberts said. And she anticipates that in a matchup with a Republican, Cooper would be able to sway many of the state’s unaffiliated voters, the state’s largest voting bloc.
Cooper has won two elections for governor in years when Trump won the state.
During the 2024 presidential election, around 37% of eligible voters, just under 3 million, in North Carolina registered unaffiliated. That designation is especially popular for younger voters.
Stanberry said that she’s heard many young people express that they were impressed that Tillis voted against the “One Big, Beautiful Bill Act” because it demonstrated him “standing on principle.”
“I think that may attract a lot of young voters. Whether it will attract them to a Republican nominee or a Democratic nominee, we shall see.”
This story was originally published July 1, 2025 at 3:57 PM with the headline "With Tillis out, NC Senate race projected as a ‘toss-up.’ What experts anticipate.."
.jpg)