Will political conventions be ‘forever changed’ after the pandemic? Some say it’s time.
By necessity, next month’s national political conventions will look much different than any others over nearly two centuries of American history.
But will future conventions look different by design?
“We may have seen the last of political conventions as we know them,” said Republican John Lassiter, CEO of the Charlotte convention host committee.
The coronavirus pandemic has forced the Democratic convention to be rescheduled once and now to go almost entirely virtual. No delegates will go to Milwaukee the week of Aug. 17, though presumptive nominee Joe Biden is scheduled to accept the nomination there.
The Republican convention a week later has shrunk to little more than a day in Charlotte, with just over 300 delegates, not the 2,500 once expected. It’s unclear where President Donald Trump will accept his nomination.
Conventions that once chose presidents have become little more than infomercials, drained of drama and spontaneity along with their original purpose. To critics, they’ve gone the way of smoke-filled rooms, replaced by a long gauntlet of primaries and caucuses.
Both parties still plan to fill several nights of prime-time hours with convention programming next month. Democrats are expected to feature pre-taped videos and speeches from notables like former President Barack Obama from sites around the country. Republicans have yet to announce their plans.
Efforts to engage people in different ways may be lasting legacies of this year’s conventions.
“I think that conventions have now forever changed because the pandemic has forced us to think about different ways to get the business of the convention done,” Leah Daughtry, who ran the 2008 and 2016 Democratic conventions, told the Observer. “It’s forced us to move from small changes to big changes. There’s something to be said for using the technology available for us to bring more people into the convention process.”
That would be fine with convention critics.
“Hopefully now this will allow the parties to move past what had become a ridiculously bloated system,” said Doug Heye, a former spokesman for the Republican National Committee. “It’s four days of speeches that by and large no one listens to and developing the platform that no one really reads . . .
“There’s a sense that whatever emerges from this (year) will be scaled back. And that that would be a positive.”
Will cities even bid?
Both Milwaukee and Charlotte once expected 50,000 visitors for their conventions, including 15,000 journalists who would bring them international attention. The visitors were expected to have a big economic impact. Charlotte’s 2012 Democratic convention generated more than $160 million in spending.
For their part, both cities’ host committees were expected to raise $70 million. That’s on top of millions more spent by the parties.
“These things cost $100 million and they do it to entertain a narrow band of people,” Lassiter said. “Are you better off doing something where you have a really thought-through, virtual multi-location event that engages more people that has exactly the same impact in the polls?”
In 2018 Charlotte was the only city that seriously bid for the GOP convention. This June, after Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper failed to guarantee Spectrum Center could be packed amid the pandemic, Trump announced he was moving most of it to Jacksonville. Last week, faced with a surge in COVID-19 cases in Florida, he canceled the Jacksonville portion altogether.
Eric Heberlig, a UNC Charlotte political scientist, said that’s likely to dampen the pursuit of future conventions. The author of “American Cities and the Politics of Party Conventions,” he found that before 9/11, an average of 15 cities bid for conventions each election year. After 2001 it was half as many as cities were dissuaded in part by security concerns.
“More and more cities have decided that the cost-benefit ratio isn’t worth it,” said Heberlig. “Now add what we’ve seen this year — that the parties can basically renege on their commitment. So that’s going to increase the cities’ perception that the costs aren’t worth it and the benefits aren’t worth it.”
Charlotte’s host committee had raised around $37 million and spent much of it. In Milwaukee the host committee had to lay off half its staff in April.
Major corporations are usually among the largest convention donors. But in a time of increasing attention to social inequities, how much they’ll be willing to give is debatable.
“Corporations are much more sensitive to what they’re able to do,” said Byron Shafer, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin and a veteran of many conventions.
Critics wonder if the expense is even worth it.
“These things get real expensive,” said Heye, “and they don’t elect a single member of Congress much less the presidential candidate.”
Tradition and technology
Political junkies revel in conventions.
For delegates they’re festive rewards for party loyalty that motivate them to work hard for their candidates. For host cities they’re a chance to show off for the world. For lobbyists they’re opportunities to schmooze with decision makers.
“They do serve a purpose (that is) largely ceremonial,” said political scientist Sandy Maisel of Maine’s Colby College. “On of the things we’ll see after the conventions next month is whether people miss having that kind of ceremony, that kind of excitement.”
Steve Kerrigan ran the 2012 Democratic convention in Charlotte. He believes that while traditional conventions may change, they’re still valuable. They mobilize activists. Sometimes they showcase rising stars like Ronald Reagan in 1976 or Obama in 2004.
“So much great stuff happened in the arena,” he said. “Stick with what works and add to it.”
David Rohde, a Duke University political scientist, said there’s a value to people coming together at a convention. But he expects technology to remain a part, just as Zoom-type meetings are expected to remain part of corporate life.
“I don’t expect them to disappear entirely,” he said. “I do expect we’ll see more of a hybrid just like is happening in the business world.”
Despite the once-expected 15,000 journalists, the media have steadily reduced convention coverage. For the past 40 years nominees have been all but decided by the time conventions began. This year Democrats will meet for just two hours a night during convention week.
“You used to have gavel-to-gavel coverage, now if you have an hour or two a night you’re lucky,” said Shafer, the Wisconsin political scientist. “The question really is, does this (year) push us hard toward a destination we were headed for anyway?
“Four years from now will not be like this year, God willing. But the party guys might decide it’s really nice to control the message.”
This story was originally published July 31, 2020 at 6:25 AM with the headline "Will political conventions be ‘forever changed’ after the pandemic? Some say it’s time.."
