Russia changes its nuclear doctrine. Why experts warn it’s a dangerous escalation

Russian President Vladimir Putin updated Russia’s nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for the use of atomic weapons — a move that was condemned by nuclear organizations and experts.

In remarks delivered Sept. 25, Putin said any nuclear power that aids a non-nuclear state in attacking Russia would be viewed as participating in the aggression.

Russia could respond to a “massive” conventional attack — including cruise missiles and tactical aircraft — with nuclear weapons if it poses “a critical threat to our sovereignty,” he said.

He added that the changes to the country’s nuclear doctrine are in response to unspecified emerging military threats to Russia.

The remarks come as the U.S. and its allies are considering allowing Ukraine to fire western-supplied missiles deep into Russian territory. This move would constitute a risky escalation of the conflict, nuclear experts previously told McClatchy News.

Response from nuclear experts

In a statement, Ernest Moniz, the head of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a nonprofit, said, “This is the latest in a series of statements and steps taken by President Putin since the Russian war on Ukraine that have elevated the risk of nuclear war to levels not seen since the darkest days of the Cold War.”

Russia’s updates to its nuclear doctrine add a new layer of uncertainty and “risk of miscalculation,” Moniz said.

“Russia’s use of nuclear threats to intimidate the international community from supporting Ukraine’s legitimate right to defend itself is unacceptable,” he added.

The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) also condemned Putin’s updated doctrine, saying it increases the likelihood of nuclear war.

The changes “mean (Russia’s) policy on when to use nuclear weapons is more ambiguous and less predictable,” Melissa Parke, the executive director of ICAN, said in a statement. “They also blur the line between conventional and nuclear attack which increases the possibility of misunderstandings.”

“Predictability is a requirement for stability and, according to the nuclear-armed states, an essential ingredient in so-called nuclear deterrence theory,” Parke added.

She urged Russia to instead sign on to the U.N. Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which has been signed or ratified by more than 100 countries.

Matthew Bunn, a foreign policy professor at the Harvard Kennedy School, downplayed the importance of the updated doctrine.

“Russia is trying to scare us,” he told McClatchy News. “But there’s little reason to think its real nuclear plans have changed.”

The chance of Russia resorting to nuclear weapons “is very low for now,” Bunn said. “But the danger of Russian nuclear use would be very real if Ukrainian breakthroughs threatened what Putin sees as vital interests.”

Dakota Rudesill, a law professor at the Ohio State University, who studies nuclear weapons, echoed this sentiment.

“Putin’s suggested changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine are cause for concern,” Rudesill told McClatchy News. “On the other hand, there is good reason to believe that this is more non-credible nuclear saber rattling.”

This story was originally published September 26, 2024 at 10:32 AM with the headline "Russia changes its nuclear doctrine. Why experts warn it’s a dangerous escalation."