NC has nearly 25,000 international students. Will that decline under Trump?
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- NC hosts nearly 25,000 international students with estimated economic impact over $900M.
- Drop in F-1 visas and stricter vetting may shrink 2025 international student enrollment.
- Universities prepare for visa delays with deferrals and limited online flexibility.
Each year, tens of thousands of students from around the world arrive in North Carolina to study at the state’s colleges and universities.
Last year, the number of students neared 25,000, according to federal data.
The students contribute to research and bring global perspectives from their home countries to their classrooms. They live on campus or in surrounding cities or towns, becoming part of the local communities. And they provide an estimated state-level economic impact of approximately $914.5 million — part of the broader impact of $44 billion that international students contribute to the economy nationwide.
“They have a significant impact in a lot of really positive ways,” said Clay Harmon, executive director of AIRC, the Association of International Enrollment Management, a membership-based organization for colleges that develops standards for enrolling international students.
But this fall, campuses could see fewer international students walking their halls, according to early projections from enrollment experts.
The projections come as President Donald Trump’s administration has increasingly targeted international students and their ability to study in the U.S., including by revoking the visas of nearly 2,000 international students around the country. More than a dozen students in North Carolina were impacted by the revocations, which terminated their records in the Student and Exchange Visitor Information System, a federal database for international students maintained by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.
While the impacted students’ visas were restored weeks later, the administration has continued to enact procedures that make it more difficult for students to keep or obtain their visas. That included pausing all new visa interviews in May, before resuming them in June with increased vetting of applicants’ social media accounts for “any indications of hostility” toward the U.S.
According to the most recently available data, the number of F-1, or student, visas issued this May was 22% lower than the previous May, Inside Higher Ed reported. That’s a trend that could be attributed to the pause in visa interviews that month but could signal a looming, larger decline.
It remains difficult for some students to schedule an interview appointment, which could prevent students from arriving at their chosen universities in time for fall courses. Getting an appointment has been particularly hard for students from countries including China and India, which are the top countries sending students to the U.S. and account for more than half of all international students enrolled here.
“I’m very worried the international students that are choosing to come here are not going to get here by the fall,” said Sarah Spreitzer, vice president and chief of staff for government relations at the American Council on Education, an advocacy group that represents colleges and universities around the country.
And there are signs that North Carolina university officials are preparing for such a scenario.
Some students may not arrive for fall classes
In a typical year, the Triangle’s major research universities each host thousands of international students on their campuses.
According to the most recently available federal data:
- Duke University in the 2023-24 academic year enrolled more than 5,900 international students, the most of any university in the state.
- NC State University followed close behind, with 5,475 international students, the second-most in the state and the most of any public university.
- UNC Charlotte ranked third in the state and second in the UNC System, with 3,393 international students.
- UNC-Chapel Hill ranked fourth in the state and third in the UNC System, with 3,153 international students.
In communications to international students this spring and summer, the schools have each acknowledged the ongoing issues in obtaining visas.
When asked by The N&O, campus officials at UNC and NC State were hesitant to predict a drop in international student enrollment this fall, saying it was too early to know the full impact of the temporary pause in visa processing and other federal changes. (Duke did not make a campus official available for an interview by publication.)
“It is difficult at this point to project whether all returning and newly admitted international students will be able to secure their U.S. visas in time to attend NC State in the fall 2025 semester,” NC State spokesperson Mick Kulikowski wrote in an email to The N&O, noting that the university would have a better picture of its final enrollment numbers in late August.
Still, NC State officials have advised incoming students that if they are unable to obtain a visa by late August, they will be forced to defer their admission to a later term.
UNC chief global officer Barbara Stephenson told The N&O in an email that the university has seen, since mid-July, that “the weekly rate of visa issuance has slightly decreased.” While there was a pause on visa appointments from May 27 to June 18, students who previously had appointments scheduled were able to get their visas, Stephenson added.
Harmon, of the Association of International Enrollment Management, said “the timing of that pause was really unfortunate, because that was the absolute peak of the summer visa season, and so it directly had an impact on students’ ability to make appointments for visas, not only during that period, but for the rest of the summer.”
UNC recognizes that “it is possible that some students will not receive their visas before the start of the semester,” Stephenson wrote. To accommodate the delays in visa appointments and processing, the university has extended its date for students to defer their admission to Aug. 15, just three days before fall classes start on Aug. 18, Stephenson said.
Stephenson noted that returning international students who are already enrolled at the university are not likely to need a new visa.
Speaking to reporters last month after a Board of Trustees meeting, UNC Chancellor Lee Roberts acknowledged “all the anxiety” international students are experiencing in the current moment.
“The latest I’ve heard is that the visa processing pipeline is starting to open up a little bit, and our students are starting to receive visas,” Roberts said. “Albeit more slowly than I think anyone would like, but given how idiosyncratic it’s been, it’s very hard to predict the impact.”
Economic impact of international students
International student enrollment makes up about 6% of total higher education enrollment across the country, according to Harmon. This equates to more than 1.1 million international students enrolled in U.S. institutions.
In many cases, international students help subsidize the education of domestic and in-state students, given that they pay a premium cost for tuition or other learning expenses, Harmon noted. That’s especially true at state schools, like UNC and NC State, where international students pay out-of-state tuition that is significantly higher than the in-state rate.
But the financial benefit from higher international student enrollment goes beyond university funds. It extends to the communities the students live and work in.
A new report from NAFSA: Association of International Educators and JB International, which promotes educational technology around the world, estimates there could be a 30% to 40% drop in new international student enrollment this fall, contributing to a 15% drop overall among the group. This would equate to almost $7 billion in revenue lost across U.S. institutions, with about $144 million coming from North Carolina schools.
Hosting international students in the U.S. also contributes to the nation’s “soft power” globally, Harmon said, referring to the tactic of countries shaping perceptions of themselves using non-coercive tactics.
“Anyone who can come here, have a deep understanding of our country and a cultural knowledge of our country – and who can take a positive relationship back home with them … is a benefit to [the] United States’ national security position globally,” Harmon said.
Harmon noted that international students can pose some risks to national security, with some experts warning of possible research espionage — something the Trump administration cited in May, when officials said they would revoke the visas of some Chinese students, The New York Times reported.
“But those are specific, narrow, nuanced concerns, and they need to be treated and addressed in specific, narrow and nuanced ways,” Harmon said. “And applying a blanket national security rationale to all international students is self-defeating and incorrect.”
Will additional flexibility be enough?
As the fall semester approaches — with classes starting Aug. 18 at NC State and UNC, and Aug. 25 at Duke — Spreitzer expects campuses to be flexible with international students, taking a page from their playbooks during the pandemic. That could look like letting students defer their admission to a later semester, as NC State and UNC have indicated they will allow students to do, or offering online courses for international students, among other tactics.
At UNC, Roberts said faculty have “gone above and beyond” to ensure international students are set up for success. Hybrid or remote learning options for students with visa delays will vary among departments and programs, he said.
Some students who are unable to make it to the U.S. this fall could find themselves unable to begin their studies in any capacity, even with the added flexibility campuses are expected to offer. That could be especially true for graduate students, whose degrees generally require hands-on research, learning or teaching.
“Remote learning is not feasible for these types of programs,” Kulikowski, the NC State spokesperson, said.
For students who arrive on campus, there will likely be additional concerns about whether they will be able to remain in the U.S., or return to the country if they were to leave, given the increase in entry screenings and travel bans implemented by the Trump administration. Total or partial bans are currently in effect for 19 countries, and the administration is evaluating travel bans in 36 additional countries, Reuters reported last month.
NC State, for instance, is advising international students and scholars to “carefully assess your individual risks, have contingency plans and consider how the possibility of a delayed return would affect your ability to resume on-campus research, work, or study.” And Duke has urged its international community to “avoid international travel unless essential.”
Possible long-term implications
Beyond the immediate concerns this fall, though, there could be long-term implications for international student enrollment in North Carolina and across the country.
Spreitzer noted that most international students who chose to come to the U.S. for school have often put years of studying and planning into the decision, and have saved tens of thousands of dollars — if not much more — in anticipation of it being an expensive endeavor.
UNC, for instance, advises international students that they should expect to pay at least $240,000 over the course of a four-year undergraduate program.
“It’s such a major life decision to come to the United States to study,” Spreitzer said.
Spreitzer expects the state’s biggest institutions — both in terms of size and prestige — like Duke and UNC, could fare far better than smaller, regional schools if enrollment drops this fall. That’s because international students applying to a specialized program at a globally competitive university might be more inclined to roll the dice with a turbulent visa process in hopes of achieving their desired education.
“I think that there’s going to be an uneven impact,” Spreitzer said.
If a student cannot obtain the proper documents to come to the U.S. this fall, they might decide to instead pursue their studies in another country — as opposed to deferring their admission in the U.S. — to ensure their yearslong efforts are not wasted. Additionally, prospective students whose moves to the U.S. are still years away could already be rethinking their decisions given the current policy climate.
Students could flock to England, Australia or even China, which is “really working hard to become a destination for international students, among many other countries who are making that play right now,” Harmon said.
If droves of international students over the next few years decide to study in countries other than the U.S., the trend would have “a long term impact on our position globally,” Harmon said, given that the nation could lose the benefits international students bring — from research contributions, to their economic impact, to their financial contributions to their universities.
More broadly, Harmon said, the trend could serve as evidence that the international community no longer sees the U.S. as “a reliable or safe destination.” That would be a major change from recent history, which has seen international student enrollment in the U.S. on an upward trajectory except for notable declines after 9/11 and during the COVID-19 pandemic.
And the impacts are likely to stretch beyond college campuses and have broader implications for the country.
“It’s not just institutions of higher education,” Spreitzer said. “I think we’re talking about the United States, as a whole, losing a lot.”
This story was originally published August 7, 2025 at 5:00 AM with the headline "NC has nearly 25,000 international students. Will that decline under Trump?."
