Wake and NC have fewer students due to COVID-19. Will they return to public schools?
For the first time in nearly 40 years, the Wake County school system has shrunk in size instead of continuing to add new students.
State figures released this week show that Wake County is reporting 157,673 students as its official enrollment for this school year, down 4,234 students or 2.6% from last school year. Student enrollment is down statewide by 3.6% this school year.
“We attribute this change to a larger number of parents making alternative choices for their students due to the COVID-19 pandemic,” Lisa Luten, a district spokeswoman, said in a statement. “Trends include delaying kindergarten and temporarily homeschooling.. Student attendance is also down.”
While enrollment is down this year, Luten said Wake leaders don’t believe the state report “actually reflects what the numbers are.” When factoring in changes for how attendance is now taken, Luten said, Wake estimates the true enrollment reduction to be approximately 3,000 students.
Wake County has tripled its enrollment since the 1980s, seeing years where it grew by as many as 7,500 new students. Until this year, Wake hadn’t seen an enrollment decline since 1982.
Wake is the state’s largest school district and, heading into this school year, was the 15th largest in the nation.
But growth had slowed in recent years, which school and county planners attribute to the combined effects of the aging of the population, fewer children being born and competition from charter schools, private schools and homeschooling.
Wake grew by 1,436 students last school year to reach 161,907 students. Planners had projected in February that enrollment would grow by only 33 students this fall.
But then the COVID-19 pandemic hit.
Fewer students statewide
Statewide, overall public school enrollment is down by more than 50,000 students from last school year. But the drop is at traditional public schools and not charter schools.
There were 62,926 fewer students in traditional public schools in the second month of classes this school year compared to the same time last year. In contrast, charter school enrollment is up by 8,424 students.
Wake County uses the average daily membership figure from the second month of classes to determine its official annual enrollment. Wake added 1,284 students since the first month of classes.
The enrollment figures confirm the fears of education leaders that the pandemic would reduce the number of students they serve. State lawmakers agreed not to reduce state funding this school year for districts that had fewer students
The enrollment decline came as the majority of school districts started the school year only offering online classes. It’s only in the past six weeks that many elementary schools have moved toward providing limited or full-time daily in-person classes.
At the same time public schools were going virtual, many private schools have been open for the past three months with in-person classes. Additionally, the state has seen a spike in interest in homeschooling.
Official enrollment figures for private schools and homeschools won’t be released until the summer.
Fewer students in kindergarten
Kindergarten enrollment is down nationally, statewide and in Wake County.
There are 13,573 fewer kindergarten students in North Carolina public schools than last school year, an 11.7% drop. Wake County had 1,414 fewer kindergartners for a 12% drop.
“We’re hearing from schools that lots of parents are delaying kindergarten or opting out of the first grade during the pandemic,” Luten said in an interview.
North Carolina, along with 30 other states, does not require children to attend kindergarten, according to EducationNC. In addition, state law doesn’t require parents to enroll their child in school or register them for homeschooling until they turn 7.
“Parents understand the law allows them to redshirt their children,” Terry Stoops, vice president of research for the John Locke Foundation, said in an interview. “Many are uncomfortable with them starting a year with remote learning and may have held them back.”
State lawmakers have been steadily reducing K-3 class sizes with many school districts complaining they don’t have enough classroom space or teachers. A potential statewide surge in kindergarten enrollment next school year would strain efforts to keep class sizes down.
Student attendance down
Wake is also citing a change in how student attendance is calculated this year as a factor in the dropping enrollment. Attendance rules were revised to take into account how many students are taking virtual classes now.
But Luten said some students are attending school less frequently for their online classes. She also said record-keeping of attendance for virtual classes is less accurate.
Under state rules, students who are absent for 10 straight days are considered to be “in violation” and are dropped from determining a school and district’s average daily membership. A student can be marked absent for the day if they’re not recorded as being present in half their online classes.
Luten said 1,348 students were marked in violation of attendance rules and not counted in Wake’s totals by the state. That’s compared to 121 the same time last year.
Wake says 8.8% of students had four or more absences in the first quarter, compared to 5.8% this same time last school year. That helped contribute to an increase in the number of middle school and high school students failing classes.
Rebound in Wake anticipated
Luten said school and county planners are working on updated enrollment projections that will be presented in January. This includes determining how to deal with a potential one-year bump in kindergarten enrollment next school year.
The municipalities are telling school planners that, despite the pandemic, growth continues to be strong, according to Luten.
“When things open back up, we’ll recover from the enrollment drop,” she said.
But Stoops of the Locke Foundation says Wake County and other North Carolina school districts shouldn’t expect to recover all the students they’ve lost this year.
“Competition is playing a big role,” Stoops said. “The increased popularity of homeschooling, increased interest in private schools and significant increase in the number of charter schools means parents have more options than ever to enroll their children in a school of choice.”
This story was originally published November 27, 2020 at 1:49 PM with the headline "Wake and NC have fewer students due to COVID-19. Will they return to public schools?."
