COVID-19 pandemic cuts Wake transit tax revenues, delaying bus and rail projects
Wake County residents may not see commuter rail or other elements of the county’s transit plan as soon as expected, thanks to the coronavirus.
The largest source of revenue to pay for improved transit in Wake is a half-cent sales tax that voters approved in late 2016. The tax was expected to help build four bus rapid transit lines radiating from downtown Raleigh and a commuter rail line through the heart of the county by 2027.
Now the coronavirus pandemic has cut the revenue generated by that and other taxes that support mass transit. Revenue from the transit sales tax, which generated about $100 million a year before the pandemic, dropped significantly in March, April and June and could take years to return to pre-pandemic levels.
As a result, transit planners say it could be 2030 or later before all the parts of the Wake Transit Plan that voters endorsed in 2016 are completed. As they contemplate new schedules, planners are asking the public to fill out a survey, at goforwardnc.org/wakeinput/, to help determine what should be done sooner rather than later.
“We are not changing the goals of the Wake transit program,” said Stephanie Plancich, administrator for an advisory committee of local governments and agencies that oversee the plan. “What they’re helping us do, though, is help us prioritize them, tell us what’s most important to the community.”
The sales tax has already helped expand and improve bus service in the county. GoRaleigh, GoTriangle and GoCary have used the money to establish new routes and increase the frequency on others and to expand service to include all 12 cities and towns in the county. It has also helped pay for new bus shelters and equipment and allow teens and seniors to ride for free.
But the big ticket items are commuter rail and the bus rapid transit or BRT lines. BRT lets buses drive in their own reserved lanes with some features of light-rail, including stations with raised, covered platforms and kiosks where riders buy tickets before boarding.
The first of the four planned BRT lines would run 5.1 miles east from downtown Raleigh out New Bern Avenue. It’s expected to cost $71.5 million to build, with nearly half coming from the federal government, and be ready by 2023.
But the timing of the three other BRT lines is now less certain. They would follow Capital Boulevard to the north, Western Boulevard to the west toward downtown Cary and either South Saunders or South Wilmington street south to Garner.
The 37-mile commuter rail line would follow the existing rail corridor owned by the N.C. Railroad between Garner and Durham, passing through Raleigh, Cary and Research Triangle Park. The Wake Transit Plan called for all four BRT lines and commuter rail to be operating by 2027.
Lost revenue to be felt a decade
Stay-at-home orders and business closures cut transit sales tax revenue by 10.4% in March, 22.5% in April and 12.9% in May, according to Wake County Department of Tax Administration. With the pandemic still raging and unemployment at record levels, it’s not clear how quickly revenue will recover.
The Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization, which does transit planning for the region, has developed five scenarios for tax revenue over the next decade. The agency estimates that transit tax revenues, including the sales tax and smaller amounts from car rentals and vehicle registrations, will be $107 million to $298 million less than expected by 2030.
CAMPO has begun a planned three-year extension of the Wake Transit Plan through 2030. Before the pandemic, the agency would have expected the county and its municipalities to consider new transit projects after commuter rail and BRT were completed in 2027.
But Plancich says thanks to the pandemic, transit agencies will likely still be finishing what’s already planned.
“Even with the best-case scenario that we’re forecasting at this point, there’s no money for new projects,” she said.
This story was originally published August 19, 2020 at 6:00 AM with the headline "COVID-19 pandemic cuts Wake transit tax revenues, delaying bus and rail projects."
