‘Overwhelmed’: Omicron has potential to break COVID-19 records in NC, study suggests
A group of scientists funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is projecting the omicron variant may break pandemic records for coronavirus hospitalizations across North Carolina.
A new study published Friday by the COVSIM modeling team – made up of scientists from the University of North Carolina, North Carolina State University and Georgia Tech – estimated that hospitalizations in the state could exceed levels reached at the peak of the pandemic in January 2021 within the first few months of the new year.
The widespread adoption of booster shots and continued mask use could significantly blunt the surge, the group said. If the use of boosters doesn’t increase, hospitalizations could increase three- or six-fold.
But unless omicron proves less transmissible than delta – a finding that has become increasingly unlikely based on its rapid spread in Denmark, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and in some parts of the United States – the virus is statistically poised to cause record hospitalizations.
“The estimates show that omicron can spread very quickly and infect a lot of people. That puts North Carolina at great risk for seeing a lot of infections over the holidays and afterwards, and in most of the scenarios, we find the hospital systems would be overwhelmed,” said Dr. Julie Swann, head of the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering at North Carolina State University and an adviser to the CDC during its response to the H1N1 pandemic in 2009.
“In most of these scenarios, we’re seeing a really large surge coming,” Swann said. “Chilling, sobering, dire – really most of the modelers when they look at the estimates are really quite concerned, because for vaccines and boosters to make an impact, we need to get them today. We can’t wait until the surge has happened and expect to be able to respond effectively.”
The scientists do point out that many of the assumptions used in their model are uncertain and so their projections could vary widely. They also point out that widespread use of masks could reduce hospitalizations by 30% to 60%.
The study has been sent to the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services for review.
NCDHHS officials are already dealing with the latest variant, announcing this week that residents of Pitt and Orange counties have tested positive.
The omicron variant was first confirmed in North Carolina last Friday making North Carolina the country’s 29th state to report a positive case. The virus infected a college student at UNC-Charlotte who had traveled for Thanksgiving.
Since March 2020, COVID-19 in North Carolina has killed 19,121 people and more than 1.5 million people have tested positive for the deadly virus. Twenty-two of those deaths were reported by health officials on Friday.
There are 1,584 people hospitalized, with 420 people in intensive care units, health officials reported.
They also report that 69% of adult residents are fully vaccinated.
Despite that, COVID-19 is beginning to shut down activities again for North Carolina colleges.
On Friday, UNC-Chapel Hill learned that their opponents in a Monday basketball game, the UCLA Bruins, had begun COVID-19 protocols.
Duke University’s opponent, Loyola University - Maryland, announced positive cases of COVID-19 on its team.
Both North Carolina teams are trying to find new opponents to play on Monday.
Meanwhile, Raleigh Mayor Mary-Ann Baldwin announced Friday she would continue the mask mandate within the city. Gov. Roy Cooper had in recent months left mandates up to local authorities.
Baldwin said in a news release that she expects a spike after the holidays.
This story was originally published December 17, 2021 at 5:12 PM with the headline "‘Overwhelmed’: Omicron has potential to break COVID-19 records in NC, study suggests."
