Coronavirus deaths in this NC city are doubling faster than any other in the US. Why?
Alamance County, about 60 miles northwest of Raleigh in North Carolina, has topped headlines during the coronavirus pandemic with a defiant racetrack and a YouTube troubadour.
Now the rate of COVID-19 deaths in the county’s largest city has made national news.
Burlington, a Piedmont community of 55,000 people, had the highest daily average growth rate of deaths in the United States as of May 27, according to data compiled by The New York Times over the last two weeks.
With a daily growth rate of 11%, the number of deaths doubles every 6.7 days in Burlington, The Times reported. The next highest rate is in Roanoke, Virginia, where the number of deaths doubles every 7.6 days.
In a county where the per capita case rate is no worse or better than most of North Carolina, why are Burlington’s deaths doubling at such a comparatively high rate?
A deadly outbreak at a nursing home is likely one factor in this community that has in some ways set the tone in North Carolina for discussions on coronavirus restrictions and the rights of business owners.
Alamance at a glance
Interstate 40 runs through Alamance County, which has seen remnants of the explosive growth in the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill region. Tanger Outlets in Mebane draws shoppers from near and far.
One of the biggest employers in the county is LabCorp, which has been on the front lines of COVID-19 testing.
Alamance has followed a typical trajectory for coronavirus cases in North Carolina since the state reported its first in early March.
The county has 325 reported cases and 24 deaths as of Thursday.
With 17.7 cases per 10,000 people, Alamance ranks 53rd out of North Carolina’s 100 counties in terms of the per capita case rate, according to data compiled by The News & Observer. That’s lower than the current statewide rate of 23.6.
Alamance is also home to a racetrack that hosted thousands of fans over Memorial Day weekend in defiance of Gov. Roy Cooper’s order limiting outdoor gatherings.
County officials said they consulted with Cooper’s office before Saturday’s race at ACE Speedway in Altamahaw, The News & Observer reported. But the state Department of Health and Human Services has said it told the speedway to host the race without fans, saying only a crowd of 25 people with requisite health screenings would be permitted, according to The N&O.
Few people at the packed speedway wore masks, with The N&O describing it as “a scene from life before” the coronavirus pandemic.
How Burlington compares
About eight miles down the road from the speedway sits Burlington, the largest city in Alamance County.
Close to two-thirds of the county’s coronavirus cases belong to three Burlington ZIP codes, according to data compiled by state health officials.
A little less than half are in the 27217 zip code, “which includes Burlington east of N.C. 87 and extends north of the city to include Green Level and Pleasant Grove,” the Burlington Times-News reported.
| ZIP Code | Number of Cases | Number of Deaths |
| 27215 | 44 | 3 |
| 27216 | 1 | 0 |
| 27217 | 143 | 16 |
The 27217 ZIP code is also home to White Oak Manor, a 160-bed nursing home that saw a coronavirus outbreak.
White Oak has reported 103 cases in 66 residents and 37 staff members as of May 26, according to data the state released Tuesday. At least 19 people have died, all of them residents.
Those 19 account for nearly all of Alamance County’s 24 recorded deaths.
County officials first reported the outbreak May 1, according to the Burlington Times-News. At the time, 120 residents had been tested and 12 were positive.
By May 21, WFMY reported White Oak had the largest nursing home outbreak in the Triad with 80 cases and nine deaths.
It’s still among the biggest outbreaks among North Carolina nursing homes. Only four others — in Chatham, Durham, Orange and Rowan counties — have a larger number of confirmed cases, the most recent data shows.
Between May 21 and May 26, deaths at White Oak more than doubled from nine to 19, which could account for Burlington’s high growth rate of deaths as reported by The New York Times.
The Times uses that data, combined with the daily growth rate of cases, to track the next possible location of an outbreak.
Burlington has a 4% daily growth rate in terms of new coronavirus cases.
That means the number of cases doubles every 18.7 days — a not altogether staggering figure compared to one city in Arkansas, where cases double every six days, according to The Times’ data.
“Growth rates are useful measures in epidemics because they tell us whether things are getting better or worse,” The Times reported. “In places where the growth rate is high but the number of cases is relatively low, a community may still have time to flatten its curve before an outbreak becomes widespread.”
This story was originally published May 28, 2020 at 12:24 PM with the headline "Coronavirus deaths in this NC city are doubling faster than any other in the US. Why?."
