Coronavirus may infect 750,000 in NC if distancing policies aren’t extended, model says
The coronavirus could infect as many as 750,000 people in North Carolina by the end of May if social distancing policies are not extended past April, according to predictions unveiled Monday by scientists from several North Carolina universities and businesses.
The forecast, which is the composite of three models, predicts that 250,000 people in North Carolina could be infected if social distancing policies were extended throughout May. Gov. Roy Cooper instituted a stay-at-home order through April 29. Many local governments have also put restrictions in place.
The model is not an official product of the state or of Duke or UNC-Chapel HIll, but of individual scientists who worked to aid the state. It was developed with the help of Blue Cross and Blue Shield of North Carolina, NoviSci and RTI International, in addition to the universities. Duke, UNC and RTI each produced one of the models, which were specific to North Carolina.
“Maintaining some form of social distancing policies as those in place right now will give us the best chance to make sure our health system has enough capacity to manage COVID-related infections. We’ve shown that lifting all social distancing polices completely after April 29 leads to a much higher, a 50% probability, that hospital acute and ICU bed capacity will be outstripped,” said Aaron McKethan, the founder and CEO of NoviSci and a senior policy fellow and adjunct professor at Duke.
McKethan was clear to say those behind the model were not making policy recommendations, acknowledging the challenges to the population and the economy of maintaining social distancing.
“We’re not recommending or suggesting that current policies can or should remain in place indefinitely. What we’re doing is providing policymakers a weather-forecast like information to help them make those important trade-offs between taking care of the public health and doing so in ways that allow the state to re-open very gradually,” he said.
There were more than 2,900 confirmed cases of coronavirus in North Carolina on Monday and more than 35 people have died from the disease. The state’s first case was reported March 3.
Enough hospital beds?
The model suggests that there is a greater than 50% chance of exceeding capacity at hospitals and intensive care units if social distancing policies are not extended beyond their current end of April date. If current or similar policies were enacted beyond their current end date, that probability drops to around 20%.
The model did not forecast deaths in the state due to the virus.
“We know from looking at other localities that are deeper into this outbreak. we know that if you run out of hospital beds and people can’t get access to hospital beds and the care they need, you will have more deaths,” said Pia MacDonald, a senior epidemiologist at RTI International and an adjunct associate professor at UNC.
“The important part of our findings is, let’s make sure that people in North Carolina have access to the hospital care that they might need to avoid getting into the situations that you see in Italy or other places like New York City.”
The models include what would happen with a 20% surge in hospital bed capacity — an additional 4,000 beds — as well as with a 50% “super surge” in hospital bed capacity. But even those surges, without extending social distancing policies, would only slightly reduce the probability of exceeding hospital capacity, researchers found.
“That gives a sense of how high some of those upper estimates really are,” said Mark Holmes, the director of the Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research and a professor at UNC.
He equated adding beds to boarding up windows in advance of a Category 5 hurricane: There’s only so much it will help protect the structure.
“You can make some preparations, but for the kinds of really bad scenarios that are included in these models, the demand far outstrips supply,” he said. “We’re hoping it doesn’t get to that.”
North Carolina’s population is approximately 10.5 million. If 250,000 people were infected, that amounts to 2.4% of the state’s population. If 750,000 people were infected, that amounts to about 7.1% of the state’s population.
The state’s projection comes as a model created by University of Washington researchers has dramatically cut the number of deaths it predicts in North Carolina. Researchers at the school’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation now think about 500 people will die from COVID-19 in North Carolina, down from the more than 2,400 they predicted just a week and a half ago.
This story was originally published April 6, 2020 at 12:52 PM with the headline "Coronavirus may infect 750,000 in NC if distancing policies aren’t extended, model says."
