Want to hear two-cents worth from someone who's been both a pro and an amateur in the bracket breakdown bonanza?
Well, you're going to anyway.
The Blue Devils will either go to the Final Four, or they'll go home in the second round.
There's logic behind the argument that Duke's road isn't as bumpy as some others. Bracketologists had a tough time identifying who the fourth No. 2 seed might be. The spot went to a recently slumping Villanova team, and the Wildcats are in the South Region with Duke.
Villanova, however, isn't reeling nearly as much as No. 4 seed Purdue, which has totaled 86 points in its two games against NCAA Tournament teams since losing Robbie Hummel to a knee injury.
In the Texas-sized portion of Duke's bracket, No. 3 seed Baylor most recently won an NCAA Tournament game in 1950, and No. 5 Texas A&M has reached the Sweet 16 just once since 1981.
That's all well and good for Duke, but then take a look at the team that the Blue Devils are staring at as a possible second-round opponent.
No. 9-seeded Louisville has knocked off Syracuse, another No. 1 seed, twice this season. When the Cardinals are playing their best, clearly they can beat the best. Simply put, a matchup with Louisville -- which would be the first since the 1986 NCAA title game -- smells like trouble.
All that being said, NCAA Tournament history teaches us to expect the unexpected.
Duke instead could draw a tough Cal team in the second round. Or the Blue Devils might meet the Louisville team that lost to Western Carolina rather than the one that swept Syracuse.
Come regionals in Houston, Villanova is the team that crushed Duke in the 2009 Sweet 16, and Baylor and Texas A M are up-and-coming teams that would be playing in their home state.
Plus, about half of everyone's favorite Cinderellas reside in Duke's bracket -- No. 7 Richmond, No. 11 Old Dominion, No. 12 Utah State and No. 13 Siena.
First things first
While most fans of top seeds may have caught a glimpse of their team's first-round opponent if they tuned into the right conference championship game, Duke fans will get a unique chance to check out the Blue Devils' competition tonight (7:30 p.m., ESPN).
Winthrop and Arkansas-Pine Bluff play the "opening-round" game in Dayton, Ohio, to earn a date with Duke on Friday in Jacksonville, Fla.
While Winthrop (19-13) arguably is the most successful program in recent years when it comes to earning automatic berths -- having now won nine of the past 12 Big South Tournament titles -- Arkansas-Pine Bluff is a newcomer.
The Golden Lions (17-15), champions of the SWAC, are making their first NCAA appearance, though they certainly are familiar with several teams in the field.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff started the season with 11 consecutive losses, all road games and all but three against teams from major conferences. They weren't really in contention but weren't really blown out in any of those eight games, with margins between 12 and 20 points, including a 12-point loss at Georgia Tech and a 14-point loss at Kansas State.
The Golden Lions are one win away from adding Duke to their long list of impressive opponents.
"We don't want to look that far yet," Arkansas-PB coach George Ivory said Monday on ESPN2's First Take, "but that's a tough matchup for anybody."
Arkansas-PB provides one of those feel-good stories so synonymous with March Madness. But like many things that feel good, the Golden Lions won't likely last very long. No. 1 seeds are 100-0 against No. 16 seeds.
First team out?
Virginia Tech's exclusion from the field has many with an ACC viewpoint asking why the Hokies were deemed less deserving than Wake Forest, for example.
It may be a case of the sheer volume of numbers that the selection committee must juggle overwhelming common sense and could be a case study for future programs.
Wake Forest, with a 19-10 record, had an RPI of 39, while Virginia Tech (23-8) had an RPI of 59. Out of conference, Wake played five teams in the RPI top 60 (going 3-2 with a pair of overtime victories), while Virginia Tech played just two (going 1-1).
Some of that was out of the Hokies' control. Big Ten opponents Penn State and Iowa both ended up among the bottom five in RPI among teams from major conferences. On the other hand, William Mary -- which won at Wake -- finished in the top 60.
Based on the look of the schedule before the season, it seemed unlikely that Virginia Tech opponents Penn State, Iowa and Georgia would be outside the top 60 or that William Mary would be in the top 60. Shift just one of those three Tech opponents into the top 60 and W M out, and the Deacons and Hokies are nearly even in top-60 opponents.
Virginia Tech, however, did have some control over the sitaution. Nine of their 14 non-conference opponents ranked outside the top 200, including N.C. Central, which stands dead-last at No. 347. The Hokies could have tried to schedule a few more teams likely to finish in the 100s -- teams they'd still easily beat for the most part -- rather than teams in the 200s and would have upped their strength of schedule without hurting their win-loss record.
Did Wake deserve a bid more than Virginia Tech? It's a close call, but consider this: Wake got in as a No. 9 seed, a higher seed than five at-large teams and the same seed as two others.
Now, how is it that the Hokies didn't get in?
You may contact Bryan Strickland at bstrickland@heraldsun.com or 419-6671.
