Orange County is blessed, even in these desperate economic times, with not being in the dire straits of, say, Scotland County, where unemployment is at a staggering 16.5 percent, according to the state's just-released August jobless data.

Though it's been toppled from its position as the county with the lowest unemployment rate in the state -- Currituck (5.1 percent), Hyde (5.6) and Dare (6.3) were lower -- Orange County was at 6.8 percent and falling, from 7.1 percent in July. Chatham County, meanwhile, was at 8.3 percent in August, down from 8.7 in July.

While both local counties are substantially below the state unemployment rate of 10.7 percent, there are 55 other counties above that figure as North Carolina suffers in the throes of this recessionary stranglehold.

So the question is, as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announces the recession is "probably over," and President Obama waffles on his answer by saying he'll wait for Bernanke to proclaim any such certainties, can there truly be such a thing as a jobless recovery, or is that just more government doublespeak.

John Quinterno, a principal of South by North Strategies, Ltd., a Chapel Hill-based economic research firm, has some interesting observations about the so-called recovery.

"In August, every part of the state confronted weak labor markets. Unemployment rates exceeded 10 percent in 69 counties, and in 34 counties, at least 12 percent of the labor force was jobless and actively seeking work," he said.

Seven of the state's 14 metropolitan areas posted double-digit unemployment rates while the others also struggled. The lowest metro unemployment rate was 8 percent in Durham-Chapel Hill.

"Changes in local unemployment rates must be taken with a spoonful of salt," Quinterno said. "The lack of seasonal adjustment limits the usefulness of month-to-month comparisons. The unemployment rate itself also doesn't capture changes in the size of the labor force. Because people who exit the labor force are not included in the official count, the abandonment of job searches by discouraged workers can make unemployment rates fall at the same time that overall joblessness is rising."

A more accurate comparison is year over year. In every North Carolina county and metro area, unemployment rates were higher in August 2009 than they were a year ago, Quinterno said. Nearly half of all counties and 13 metro areas had smaller labor forces compared to last year, suggesting that joblessness is more widespread than the unemployment rate indicates.

Brad Broadwell, Orange County director of economic development, sees a fairly stable market in this county, but has a bleak outlook for anything resembling an economic upsurge anytime soon despite sunnier forecasts from national sources.

"On a local level, I just don't see signs of that," Broadwell said.

"I think you'd find a lot more startups and a lot more capital available for startups" if the recession were waning locally, he said.

"Small business owners are worried," Broadwell said. "I think there's a lot of worries out there. I don't get a sense from anybody I speak with that we're in the clear on anything."

One indicator of that hand-wringing in the business world, according to Broadwell, involves 155,000 square feet of building space around the county that will be coming on line soon as construction is completed.

"I think there are people concerned about filling their square footage," he said.

Meanwhile, Orange County is not in a position to capitalize on any spurts of major business opportunities if they were to arise, Broadwell said, because there is not enough site-ready land available, "so we can't go after some of the larger deals that have been transpiring" in nearby counties.

Which means now is the time, before sunshine breaks on the economic horizon, to get down to the business of planning for a more robust future. It will be interesting to see how the Board of Orange County Commissioners proceeds later this year when it convenes in a special meeting on economic development issues.

Developing a deliberate, multi-government process to move the county's economic development districts from paper to reality would be a good place to start the conversation.

Dan E. Way is editor of The Chapel Hill Herald. Send e-mail to dway@heraldsun.com or call 918-1035.