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DURHAM -- Jobless rates dropped in Durham, Orange and Wake counties in August, according to the new data released by the state Employment Security Commission Friday.
Although the declines were largely the result of seasonal, cyclical changes in hiring and seasonally adjusted numbers showed an increase in unemployment, a Wells Fargo analyst said they still pointed toward continued economic recovery in the Triangle.
Durham County's unemployment rate was 8.0 percent in August, down from 8.4 percent in July.
Orange County, which had one of the lowest jobless rates in the state, posted 6.8 percent for August, down from 7.1 percent in July. Wake County's jobless rate also dropped, from 8.8 percent in July to 8.4 percent in August.
Monthly jobless rates for counties are not seasonally adjusted, and the declines could be attributed to students returning to school and dropping out of the labor force total.
Historical data kept by the ESC also show that unemployment rates typically drop in August from July.
"Rates have decreased in many of these counties for various reasons," said ESC Chairman Moses Carey Jr. in the agency's announcement. "People moving away and looking for work in other areas, students returning to school or, some people exhausting their benefits, are reasons for such declines."
Unemployment rates dropped in 90 of North Carolina's 100 counties in August. The state's seasonally adjusted rate for August was 10.8 percent, the ninth highest rate in the country.
Mark Vitner, senior economist for Wells Fargo in Charlotte, took into account seasonal changes in his unemployment rate calculations for the Triangle. He said that by his calculations, unemployment actually increased from July to August in the Durham and Raleigh-Cary metropolitan statistical areas.
The Durham metro's jobless rate increased from 7.5 percent in July to 7.8 percent in August, according to Vitner. The Raleigh-Cary metro's jobless level inched up from 8.5 percent in July to 8.6 percent.
But Vitner continued to strike a positive tone on the economy.
"The employment numbers show that there are some difficulties. ...Virtually every metropolitan area increased government payrolls, which reflects hiring for the school year," he said. "But the worst of the layoffs is behind us. Job hiring has not picked up yet, but it's looking more like a recovery has begun here in North Carolina."
The Durham and Raleigh-Cary metros together comprise a seven-county area that stretches from Person County to Johnston County.
ESC's unseasonally adjusted data had the Durham metro posting a 8.0 percent jobless rate for August, down from 8.3 percent in July. Raleigh-Cary posted 8.7 percent, down from 9.1 percent in July.
The Durham metro experienced an increase of 3,200 jobs over the month, but lost 10,500 jobs in the past year, according to the ESC. Most of the over-the-year losses were in the Manufacturing, Professional Business Services and Trade, Transportation Utilities sectors.
Larry Parker, a spokesman for the ESC, noted that it could take a while for employment to climb back to pre-recession levels.
The national recession is now in its 21st month. At the start of the recession in December 2007, the state counted 4.17 million workers in nonfarm employment. That has fallen to 3.92 million, as of August.
The eight-month recession in 2001 lasted from March to November. At the start of that recession, North Carolina's total nonfarm employment was 3.93 million. It took until the middle of 2005 for the state's employment to climb back to that level.
Many of those currently receiving unemployment benefits will see their cash flow run out soon if the benefits are not extended via an infusion of federal funds.
In Durham, 174 people exhausted their benefits in the past two months, with many hundreds more to come in the next several months, and some 653 more people could exhaust their benefits by year's end.
Statewide, 7,271 people ran out of unemployment benefits in the past two months, with 13,065 additional people expected to exhaust their benefits in the next two months.
